Editorials

Keith Thurman vs. Luis Collazo | Preview and Prediction

Keith “One Time” Thurman is back at it again, this time facing veteran Luis Collazo for a welterweight showdown in Tampa, Florida. Check out Merissa Dyer’s preview and prediction for this exciting Welterweight bout.

Keith “One Time” Thurman is back at it again, this time facing veteran Luis Collazo for a welterweight showdown in Tampa, Florida. You’ve got to hand it to Thurman—the man is one hungry fighter. He just scored a victory over Robert Guerrero four months ago, and he’s already getting back in the ring.

Thurman’s opponent Collazo is not necessarily a stepping-stone either. He’s a seasoned vet who has fought some of the top guys in the welterweight division. Once again, Thurman will have to go toe-to-toe with a fighter who’s been around the block more than “One Time.”

While this isn’t the most ideal matchup for Thurman, I have a feeling that Thurman-Collazo is certainly worth watching. Collazo could end up being a real test, a factor that would only help Thurman gain more experience and credibility before facing elite fighters. Thurman’s name has been thrown out as a possible contender for Floyd Mayweather, though the likelihood of that fight is debatable.

If Thurman is looking to be the next welterweight superstar, or star in boxing period, he needs to be tested time-and-time again to continue proving himself and move up the ranks. Collazo does not intend to make this easy for Thurman, which is why we should anticipate a competitive bout.

Expect to see some boxing skill, specifically on Thurman’s behalf, for you boxing purists and enthusiasts. For the fan that craves a good brawl, know that deep down Thurman loves to fight (Collazo doesn’t mind either), so don’t be surprised if the two end up going toe-to-toe.

Tale of the Tape

Keith ThurmanLuis Collazo
Record25-0, 21 KOs36-6, 19 KOs
Age2634
Height5'7"5'9"
Reach69"72"
Weight147147
StanceOrthodoxSouthpaw
HometownClearwater, FLBrooklyn, NY
Rounds Boxed105249

We’ve got a solid match up on our hands according to the tape. One factor that stands out the most is Luis Collazo’s experience. He’s boxed more than twice as many rounds as Keith Thurman, with quite a few of those rounds spent in the ring with elite welterweight fighters. It really pales in comparison to Thurman’s 105 rounds boxed, which is to be expected for a fighter nearly ten years younger than Collazo.

There is noticeably a large age gap between the two fighters, which almost certainly will play a factor in this fight. Though Collazo is the old guy here (34 is old in boxing years), he does have a reach advantage that can help him land his jab more effectively against Thurman and set up his combinations. He’s also taller, which means getting to Collazo’s head might more effort for Thurman and/or he may work Collazo’s body more easily.

Thurman is shorter in height and reach, but we all know his most deadly weapon is his power. It’s not shown on the tape, but Thurman boasts an impressive 81% knockout ratio, out-shining Collazo’s mere 45%. In addition to being significantly younger than Collazo, Thurman’s power is a great asset to have for this fight.

Main Storylines

thurman_workout_14 Przemek Garczarczyk (10) Photo by Przemek Garczarczyk/Premier Boxing Champions

Keith Thurman is keeping the momentum with Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) going with the defense of his WBA welterweight title. Luis Collazo will face Thurman on his Florida turf, which gives Thurman a great “home court” advantage.

Collazo knows he’s stepping on sacred Thurman ground, and to be honest, he could really care less. He declared that he is trying to pull off an upset again and that, “Anything can happen in this sport, one punch can end everything.” At the final press conference Collazo indicated that he’s ready for whatever Thurman brings to the ring Saturday.

[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]I didn’t come for no handouts, so you know I prepared well for this fight. I had a great camp. I hope Thurman had a great camp, I know he did. So, this is a fight you’ll have to be prepared for not only physically, but mentally, as well. – Luis Collazo [/otw_shortcode_quote]

The WBA Welterweight title is no hand-out, and Thurman is ready to make Collazo work for it. “I am an evolutionary boxer,” Thurman said, which is quite accurate. Thurman has progressed, even in small ways, with each bout in his career. He added, “I change and grow with every camp, every fight, I am here to retain my title and become the undisputed, true Welterweight champ.”

Thurman’s chief trainer, Dan Birmingham said that they added “new dimensions” to his training such as indoor rock climbing, in addition to his “normal high-intensity” workout. Birmingham also said, “Keith continues to exemplify the dedication and expertise needed in this sport to not only become and stay world champion, but to truly showcase the science of boxing to fans across the globe.”

Strengths for Each Man

Keith Thurman

Keith Thurman vs. Leonard Bundo - Ethan Miller Getty Images Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Arguably Keith Thurman’s best asset is his power. His 81 percent knockout ratio can attest that his power is literally a force to be reckoned with. He actually has a decent chance of being able to knock Luis Collazo out (or at least down a few times) if he can sit on his punches and time them effectively, especially his right hand.

Thurman loves to fight, a detail that may help him score a dramatic victory over Collazo. To his credit he can also box. He has great footwork that he can use offensively and defensively to control the exchanges and therefore Collazo. Thurman just needs to stick with fundamentals like using his jab, being first in the exchanges, and keeping a tight defense.

 

Luis Collazo

Ortiz-Collazo-MaddieMeyer-Getty14 Photo by Maddie Mayer/Getty Images

Luis Collazo’s best advantage coming into this fight is his experience. Keith Thurman won’t necessarily bring anything Collazo hasn’t seen before, though I think he will be presently surprised by Thurman’s power and how well he can box. However, Collazo has a decent chin and may be able to tough through those power shots.

Collazo has a solid jab when he commits to it. His jab can be useful against Thurman if he works it often and effectively. As a southpaw, his lead hand is one of his best tools. He would be wise to keep it in front of Thurman to make him think, find his distance, and set up some meaningful combinations.

Collazo also moves his head well, which especially complements his inside work. I actually see Collazo having the most success in this fight by working on the inside. It’s simply the easiest way to get up on the scorecards and make Thurman fight his fight.

Weaknesses for Each Man

Keith Thurman

ThurmanChaves4 Photo by Naoki Fukada

In this fight, Keith Thurman’s lack of experience will put him at a disadvantage. Thurman hasn’t yet reached a point in his career where he’s facing seasoned fighters consistently, though he is well on his way. His best solution is to try and outsmart Luis Collazo, and if that fails, outwork him.

Before Thurman faced Robert Guerrero, I was concerned that not being able to knock him out would be a source of frustration for Thurman and cause him to make careless mistakes. I believe that is still a slight possibility. Thurman is a brawler at heart, though he’s developed into a much more refined fighter because of his boxing skills. He shouldn’t make knocking Collazo out his Plan A in the ring; Thurman must focus on fighting smart and increasing his work output.

 

Luis Collazo

Khan-COllazo

Forget a knockout, Keith Thurman can easily beat Luis Collazo by out-working him. Collazo is the busiest on the inside, but if Thurman doesn’t allow him to initiate those exchanges or stay in close quarters, Collazo will have to find another way to beat the brakes off of him. Collazo’s age is definitely a factor in this fight when we’re discussing who can outwork whom. Collazo’s conditioning will be key in his performance should the fight go into the later rounds.

Defensively, Collazo makes mistakes a power puncher like Thurman will make him pay for. Collazo has a style in which he likes to leap in, namely to land his lead right hook. Though he moves his head, he tends to fight with his hands down, making him an easy target for a fighter with decent timing and power.

Winner & Why – Keith Thurman

Keith Thurman vs. Leonard Bundo - Ed Mulholland Golden Boy Promotions Getty Images Photo by Ed Mulholland/Golden Boy Promotions/Getty Images

I underestimated Keith Thurman before he faced Robert Guerrero, a seasoned vet and southpaw, so I’m going to give him a little more than the benefit of the doubt now. Though Thurman will have to earn Luis Collazo’s respect off the break, he’s more than capable of outboxing and in the very least, out-working his opponent.

Collazo isn’t the ideal opponent for Thurman, but he shouldn’t be overlooked either. He has fought some of the best fighters out there including Shane Mosely, Amir Khan, and Ricky Hatton, to name a few. Collazo definitely has the capacity to make the fight with Thurman competitive. Should he win, he could face bigger names in the welterweight division for the remainder of his career.

Collazo has seen a lot, though I’m less sure he has what it takes to test Thurman’s boxing IQ, simply because that doesn’t appear to be Collazo’s focus when he’s in the ring. The competitiveness we see will be more physical than it is mental, which is why I give the younger, more powerful Thurman the edge. Another knockout for Thurman would add to his résumé, though I predict he will win by unanimous decision.

Catch Premier Boxing Champions: Thurman vs. Collazo on Saturday, July 11 at 9:00 pm, EST on ESPN.

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