Andre Ward vs. Paul Smith: Preview & Prediction

Check out Merissa Dyer's Preview and Prediction for Andre Ward's return against Paul Smith, which will take place Saturday, June 20, 2015 and which will be televised on BET at 10pm ET.

Andre Ward vs. Paul Smith: Preview & Prediction

Tom Hogan - Hoganphotos - Roc Nation Sports6
Photo by Tom Hogan/HoganPhotos

Don’t call it a comeback.

After a long hiatus, Andre “SOG” Ward returns to the ring this Saturday for a much-anticipated 12-round light heavyweight fight. UK fighter Paul Smith will make his journey to Oakland to face Ward on his own turf. Now, Smith isn’t the fighter we’ve been waiting for Ward to face, but Ward is doing his return to the ring right.

At one point Ward was considered the second-best pound-for-pound fighter in the world (and still is, in my opinion). He hasn’t stepped foot in the ring in a year and a half, and he needs this fight to remind everyone who the Son of God is, even if it’s by making an example out of Smith.

Ward is the favorite going into this fight and it is not difficult to imagine why. Besides being undefeated and having faced some of the toughest competitors out there (for fans who don’t know, YouTube Ward’s fights in the Super Six tournament), he’s simply one of the most talented fighters in the sport.

Smith has a mountain to climb, to say the least. He’s coming off two back-to-back losses to Arthur Abraham. A fighter whom, by the way, Ward destroyed in the aforementioned tournament.

Ward needs to this fight to look good, but can he destroy Smith spectacularly? Meanwhile, Smith wants to capitalize off Ward’s ring rust, but does he have what it takes? Let’s break down all sides of the fighters to find out.

Tale of the Tape

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Ward may be the favorite going into this fight but on paper, Smith has some advantages at his disposal. For one, he has a longer reach than Ward. An inch may seem like a modest advantage but it can make all the difference in how a fighter performs on the outside and how, for instance, he lands his jab effectively. Smith has a strong jab so he would be wise to throw it often and use it to set up his combinations. He would also need to solidify his outside work to gage how Ward would work around his reach.

Usually when one fighter is taller, the other fighter has a much easier time getting to the body. But before you imagine Smith throwing ripping shots into Ward’s body, consider this: Ward may be taller but he doesn’t stand tall. In other words, Ward uses his legs to really drop down in his stance. This is effective because he can make the height difference virtually disappear as he pleases.

Surprisingly, Smith is slightly older than Ward and has boxed more rounds than him. This is a bit ironic considering Ward is regarded as the more experienced fighter. Numerically speaking, Smith is more experienced than Ward. Without question though, Ward has better qualitative experience. He doesn’t offer anything Ward hasn’t seen before, and that should give Smith cause to worry.

Main Storylines

Andre Ward - Paul Smith - Tom Hogan - Hoganphotos Roc Nation Sports
Photo by Tom Hogan/HoganPhotos

For the fans that have followed the Ward saga, this fight feels like more of a homecoming than a comeback. In fact, pleasing the fans is the main reason Ward wanted the fight to happen in Oakland. At the final press conference Ward explained:

[otw_shortcode_quote border_style=”bordered”]The fans were phenomenal. I would see them in the street and talk to them on social media and they kept saying ‘we want you back and we miss you.’ That’s why we brought this fight back to Oakland, as a thank you to the fans for your patience, diligence and for supporting me as long as you have.[/otw_shortcode_quote]

Ward’s return can be summed up in three words: long time coming—and he’s ready. If you can’t take Ward’s word for it, listen to his brilliant trainer Virgil Hunter. “He’s not the same fighter that he was before all the litigation. He’s been tested. A lot of people are mentioning ring rust, but I brought in some of the baddest guys I could bring in [for sparring] and I’m happy with what I’ve seen.”

This is probably sad news for Smith, who is counting on Ward being rusty to end his undefeated record. Smith says, “It’s hard not to be a fan of Andre Ward, but the plan is to show him what no one has ever done Saturday night and I’ll be giving everything I can to do that.” Smith knows he has a puncher’s chance, and he’s right.

The truth is though, that chance is very small. Even his trainer, Joe Gallagher, admitted at the press conference that challenge in front of Smith is real. “It’s going to be an uphill task. Some would say mission impossible, but we plan to spoil the party Saturday night. I wish good luck to both fighters. Good luck to Virgil and his team. See you Saturday night.”

Strengths for Each Man

Andre Ward

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Before I get into Andre Ward’s strengths, how much time do you have? Ward is the definition of a formless fighter, which is undoubtedly his greatest asset. Whereas a “well-rounded” fighter (often a euphemism for mediocre) does nothing particularly special, a formless fighter does several things excellently: he can make adjustments when necessary; he adapts to the circumstances of his situation; he cannot be decoded.

Ward displays fantastic offense when he patiently works his jab and sets up important punches like his right hand and lead hook. He also has a sharp defense that can be discouraging to his opponents. One of Ward’s most underrated defenses is his footwork. It’s often not dramatic or showy, but it’s slick enough to make the most confident fighter second-guess his game plan.

Many boxing heads will give Ward props for his boxing skills, but few give him the credit he deserves for being able to fight on the inside. Ward can definitely tough out inside work should the fight with Paul Smith require going toe-to-toe in the exchanges. Ward is known for clinching (too much for some people’s taste), but I call it strategy. He does it at the right times and it frustrates the hell out of his opponents.

Paul Smith

Andre Ward - Paul Smith - Tom Hogan - Hoganphotos Roc Nation Sports
Photo by Tom Hogan/HoganPhotos

Paul Smith has his work cut out for him, though he brings a few strengths to the table. He has a strong jab and a longer arm reach that, if used correctly, can help keep Andre Ward literally at an arm’s length. Using the jab can also give Smith more offensive opportunities, but it is up to him to create those opportunities and work them to the best of his ability.

Most of the time Smith likes to come forward with a strong jab and attempt an exchange with his opponent. While I don’t think it will be this easy going up against Ward, Smith would play into Ward’s hands much easier if he constantly retreated backwards or by circling. Pressure is Smith’s best chance at imposing his game plan and getting his punches off on Ward.

Weaknesses for Each Man

Andre Ward

Andre Ward Stephanie Trapp Instagram
Photo by Stephanie Trapp via Instagram

Andre Ward has all the tools he needs to win this fight and has shown in the past that he can use them. His biggest obstacle this time around is coming back to the ring after such a long hiatus. Paul Smith just fought earlier this year, while Ward’s last bout was in 2013. Smith is depending on Ward’s ring rust to pull an upset, though Ward is far too experienced to let this happen.

If you follow Ward on Instagram, you are well aware that despite the legal drama preventing him from fighting, Ward has kept himself right for the past several months. He didn’t let himself go and turn to a life of partying, smoking, and drinking. Instead, Ward frequently posted videos and pictures of him working out, training in the gym, and sparring as if he was getting ready for a championship fight. This is the kind of work ethic that only a truly dedicated fighter would exhibit.

Paul Smith

Arthur Abraham v Paul Smith - Super-Middleweight Championship
Photo by Martin Rose

From a technique standpoint, Paul Smith makes simple mistakes that will not help him in the ring. He drops his hands entirely too much when stepping in close range and when he throws punches. He also lacks effective head movement, making him so damn easy to hit. Smith can’t afford to make defensive mistakes like these with Andre Ward, who has great timing and accuracy.

One of Smith’s greatest obstacles is competing against Ward’s boxing IQ. Smith has not proven himself to be a particularly smart boxer or as having much versatility. He tends to do the same thing over and over without making any adjustments.

For example, Smith could do a lot more with his jab (in terms of following it up), but he chooses to throw the same combinations, such as the jab cross and double-jab cross. Every once and a while he will attempt the body when the opportunity presents itself. Majority of the time though, he headhunts, which is a super easy pattern for Ward to break down.

Winner and Why

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Photo by Naoki Fukada

I like to call it like I see it, and this is definitely a showcase fight for Andre Ward. He should have no trouble mopping the floor with Paul Smith. Ward needs to get his gloves wet so he can get back on track and face elite competition again. This fight is designed to make Ward look spectacular, which is fine by me and other boxing heads who love to watch him fight.

Smith doesn’t have what it takes to break down a fighter, especially a formless one like Ward. He makes simple mistakes for which Ward will make him pay. I am, however, interested to see if Smith will contribute to the fight’s competitiveness or at least its entertainment. Sometimes the most one-sided match ups can produce unexpected excitement.

Anyone who loves boxing and actually practices the sport daily, whether as a professional, amateur, or through frequent sparring at their gym, understands how difficult being away from the ring can be. For the most dedicated of us out there, boxing is an irreplaceable form of therapy and outlet.

Beyond solace, boxing is something we want to win at, and I believe the same holds true for Ward. During his hiatus, he once said if he had to retire he would be satisfied with all he had accomplished in the sport. From what I see, Ward’s desire to win trumps his willingness to give up. Enjoy watching Ward tear Smith to shreds. The Son of God has returned.

Watch Ward vs. Smith Saturday, June 20 at 10:00 pm, EST on BET.