Photo by Hogan Photos
When Bernard “The Alien” Hopkins steps into the ring, at least as of late, there’s an eerie sense that he will effectively school his younger opponent, who is likely depending on his youth, power and speed.
You know, things that are trivial to an alien. Let’s keep in mind that Hopkins was once the “Executioner” which, if it was still his alias today, might make for a more macho, hyper-masculine matchup against Sergey “The Krusher” Kovalev.
Instead, it sounds more like The Krusher will be up against some freakish force set to make his head spin (the boxing equivalent of Inception?). That force is Hopkins, who has retired the name Executioner for a more accurate description of what he’s been able to accomplish at age 49.
As Hopkins prepares to fight, a small part of us fears for his life the way one does when your middle-aged dad wants to play a full-court pickup game with 20-somethings (back spasms ensue). But then Hopkins dominates and we’re amazed all over again.
Now let’s not write off Kovalev entirely. His alias may sound like a retired WWE wrestler, but he still brings something to the table, namely his power. And while this may be nothing to an alien, it certainly gives him more than just a fighter’s chance. Kovalev isn’t coming to the ring survive. He’s coming to win.
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Tale of the Tape
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Age is the most obvious difference between Bernard Hopkins and Sergey Kovalev, but the stats of these two orthodox fighters present some advantages and disadvantages.
Hopkins is slightly taller than Kovalev, but more importantly, he has the longer reach by almost three inches. This is important for Hopkins because he loves to counter, especially with his jab after combinations. Having a longer reach can help Hopkins keep Kovalev away and make it more frustrating and difficult for him to set up his power punches.
At this point Kovalev is known for his punching power, and it has helped him achieve an impressive knockout percentage.
Kovalev is definitely the less-experienced fighter, with Hopkins having boxed almost seven times as many rounds as him. The slight height difference may actually give Kovalev the opportunity to be successful if he focuses on getting to the body instead of headhunting, which a taller and more-sophisticaed Hopkins can thwart easily.
All stats from BoxRec.com
Main Storylines
Photo by Hogan Photos
They say fights are won in the gym, and perhaps this is why Bernard Hopkins’ old trainer working with Team Krusher is quite the controversy. John David Jackson worked with Hopkins for his bout against Antonio Tarver in 2006. Now that he’s training Kovalev, he feels confident in knowing how to beat Hopkins because he’s trained him before.
To him, the solution is simple:
“It is what it is, Bernard is old, it’s just that nobody is treating him like an old fighter. No one hits him everywhere–hit him in his arm, in his biceps, in his shoulders and his chest. It sounds kind of sick when I say it, but hit him in his heart, make that heart skip a beat. He’s an old man, treat him like an old man.” -John David Jackson
Jackson makes a point that younger fighters going up against Hopkins treat him like he’s their age when Hopkins has physical vulnerabilities they don’t think of tapping into. However, I think Jackson’s remedy is easier said than done. Hopkins isn’t going to make himself an easy target, and he’s no stranger to punches thrown outside the traditional areas of the body. Usually he’s the one throwing them.
Hopkins isn’t giving much weight to Jackson’s comments, maybe because he beat him by TKO in 1997. When asked if Jackson being Hopkins’ former opponent, sparring partner and trainer gave Kovalev an advantage, Hopkins responded confidently:
“At least 90 percent of those times of our relationship, he has been on the end of two bad relationships. One of them was as a sparring partner in Philadelphia when he was a champion and I was an up-and-coming prospect in boxing. Second, but not least, he was one of my 20 (Middleweight title) defenses. What can a guy who flunked the test tell a guy that’s taking the test the next day? What can he actually give this guy for positive information when he failed himself? He can’t tell the guy anything about success. He had none.” -Bernard Hopkins
Aside from the tension between Hopkins and Jackson, Kovalev seems confident in his own abilities to beat Hopkins. “I don’t study anybody,” he told ESPN.com, “It is better to go to the gym to do some work for my shape or spend time to cook my breakfast or sleep in my bed. Why [do] I need to spend the time?”
When asked about his strengths in beating Hopkins, Kovalev said, “My hands are my weapons. It’s my weapon in the ring. Hopkins thinks that I only have two bullets but I will bring some more.”
Strengths For Each Man
Photo by Wallace Barron
Hopkins
Bernard “The Textbook/The Clinic” Hopkins has a lot going for him. Despite being 49, he’s learned to train and fight smarter. Hopkins has the health of a guy in his early twenties, practically making his age a non-issue. Some characterize him as a dirty fighter, but he mostly seems to have a good grip on what he’s doing in the ring.
I can see a great deal of this fight consisting of work on the outside, which is certainly doable for Hopkins. He will likely use his jab effectively to keep Kovalev at bay, and land well-timed right hands and lead hooks here-and-there. This will keep Kovalev thinking and make it more difficult for him to set up his power punches. I also think Hopkins will find the holes in Kovalev’s game early, such as his tendency to open up when throwing his jab, and to drop his hands when coming forward.
When it comes down to it, the Alien does what the Alien wants to do in the ring. This is how he is able to frustrate and dominate the younger guys and make it look easy. He is to his core, a “pick ‘em” fighter, picking and choosing his punches to slowly break down his opponent. And this makes sense for Hopkins so that he doesn’t overwork himself should the fight go into the later rounds.
Photo by Naoki Fukada
Kovalev
Perhaps I’m the only one that noticed, but Sergey Kovalev looked dramatically improved in his last fight against Blake Caparello compared to the fight before that against Cedric Agnew. I dare even say that from a technical/stylistic perspective, Kovalev looked slightly Andre Ward-esque. His punches looked much more refined, crisp and carefully placed, and there was greater attention devoted to defense than I had seen in Kovalev before.
Kovalev has talent that can potentially keep Hopkins on his toes. They call him the Krusher for a reason, and I’m curious to see how and if he can execute a game plan that incorporates the power for which he’s known. Kovalev has shown the ability to improve, so hopefully his training has focused on upping his boxing IQ. This will be a real chess match for Kovalev, and he must be completely focused at all times.
In addition to earning Hopkins’ respect early in the fight, Kovalev needs to find a balance between staying busy and fighting with patience. He shouldn’t just look for a perfect opening to land his money punch, because Hopkins will be able to sense that and shut down the situation quickly. Instead he should treat everything as a target (within the legal rules of boxing, of course). He then might also have a chance to break down Hopkins in his own way.
Weaknesses For Each Man
Hopkins
Photo by Ed Mulholland
Most of us remember the last time Bernard Hopkins lost, which was by decision to Chad Dawson. For those who don’t, it wasn’t pretty. In fact, just about everyone was wondering if it was time for Hopkins to hang it up. Why is this worth mentioning? Because the pre-Ward Dawson was good, and though Hopkins-Dawson II was terrible to watch, it was the last time Hopkins really looked out of his element.
The moral of the story is that Hopkins can get frustrated if he isn’t allowed to control the pace of fight or execute his game plan the way he wants. I don’t see Hopkins getting knocked out because I think he’s too smart for that. Getting Hopkins out of his groove would require a battle of adjustments between two fighters.
Kovalev would need to adjust over and over again to keep Hopkins on his toes and make himself virtually untouchable. However, I’m not confident that Kovalev is ready to engage in this kind of mental warfare with Hopkins.
Kovalev
Photo by Naoki Fukada
Without wisdom and strategy, a man’s strength can easily become his weakness. My sound philosophy for any fighter is to not rely solely on a single strength, namely physical variables like speed and power. Physical strengths can make a fighter too eager and cause them to overlook the importance of fighting with intelligence.
For example, if Kovalev becomes trigger-happy with his right hand, Bernard Hopkins is sharp enough to adjust and take it away from him, like he did with Kelly Pavlik. Kovalev is strong, but how he uses his power is more important than just knowing he is powerful.
Kovalev is also lacking in the experience department, and it can be difficult, even dangerous, to try and overcompensate for such a disadvantage. He will need to earn Hopkins’ respect early, ideally in the first round. If not, he will give Hopkins the license to do whatever he wants in the ring.
Kovalev is not just going up against some strong, powerful guy. He’s going up against a textbook fighter who knows how to put on a clinic. Hopkins can potentially expose the lapses in his boxing IQ if Kovalev doesn’t come ready to fight smart.
The Winner and Why
Photo by Tom Casino
If I’m betting on a fight, I put my money on boxing IQ and experience, and Bernard Hopkins has more of it. When making predictions we tend to say, “every fighter has a chance,” because it’s technically true and anything can happen is boxing. But the disclaimer is more like giving out a participation medal than first place.
Fighting smart almost always prevails. Hopkins has undeniably evolved in his training and fighting, and his latest performances back up his claims and confidence. Sergey Kovalev is equally confident, but it is fairly obvious he is going into the fight completely dependent on his power. He said himself, “Who is strong should be who win. I want that this fight should be fair. I try to be polite, I try to be nice but, if my opponent don’t respect me, then I don’t respect him.”
The Alien is not for the polite or faint of heart. If Kovalev thinks that the fight with Hopkins is going to be “clean and fair” he is mentally, if not physically, in for a rude awakening. He would probably know that if he had studied Hopkins, but Kovalev being the Walter Jr. of boxing, thought breakfast was more important.
