Photo by Chris Farina/Top Rank
Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao, arguably the greatest event in the sport of boxing, is among us. A fight that initially seemed like the impossible went from rumor to speculation to official agreement, to now counting down the months, weeks, days, hours and minutes until the first bell sounds.
My parents’ generation had the “Thrilla in Manilla,” I have Mayweather-Pacquiao. The first bout between Joe Frazier and Muhammad Ali was then called the fight of the century. Well, we’re 15 years into a new century and Mayweather-Pacquiao is shaping up to be not only the greatest fight of the 21st century, but in the history of boxing.
This is a huge moment for boxing fanatics, and for Mayweather and Pacquiao. After the word “legendary,” the word “legacy” comes to mind. Mayweather has spoken many times about leaving his legacy, and surely Pacquiao has thought of the same. The stakes of the fight go without saying as two of boxing’s most celebrated fighters battle it out to leave their mark in the sport.
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Tale of the Tape
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The tape highlights quite a few factors that are critical to the outcome of this fight.
Notice that Floyd Mayweather is taller and has a longer arm reach advantage than Manny Pacquiao. This is important because in recent fights, Mayweather has been using his jab more frequently and effectively against his opponents. His reach also compliments his fighting style that thrives on the outside.
Pacquiao, being the smaller guy (about 2 inches shorter) and having the shorter reach, will have to work around Mayweather’s arm length to get to the inside. However, height differences have not hindered Pacquiao’s ability to dominate his opponents before, as we witnessed when he defeated a much taller Oscar De La Hoya in 2008.
The match up of Pacquiao’s southpaw and Mayweather’s orthodox stances will certainly make for an interesting match up of two legendary fighters. What Makes Mayweather and Pacquiao legendary is not just their impressive skills, but also the experience they’ve accumulated over the course of their careers that has put those skills to the test. While Mayweather boasts a perfect record, Pacquiao boasts victories over some of his same opponents including Juan Manuel Marquez, Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton, and De La Hoya.
In other words, these two guys have seen a lot in their day, but they have yet to face each other. Based on the physical stats and experience of each veteran, all signs of the tape point toward this fight being a competitive one.
Main Storylines
Photo by Chris Farina/Top Rank
Where do we begin with storylines? There’s been enough drama in the making of this fight to create a best-selling novel or better yet, a Netflix Original Series. Promotional issues, drug testing, no drug testing, “Manny is running from Floyd,” “Floyd is running from Manny”—all the fuss that made it seem like us boxing fans would be left with a headache instead of a dream fight.
A moment of silence to actually take in the fact this fight is actually happening…
“Everything takes time, it’s all about timing. I’m glad that we had patience and didn’t rush. The time is now, this is the right time for this fight,” said Mayweather at the final press conference Wednesday in Las Vegas.
A very diplomatic Floyd, who seems to have put his trash-talking days behind him (or slightly to the side), takes nothing away from Pacquiao, which he shouldn’t:
“This fight is about one fighter who is at the top fighting another fighter who is at the top. It’s about giving you guys excitement. We don’t know how this fight is going to play out, but I believe in my skills. I believe I am going to be victorious.”
Surprisingly, Pacquiao is confident but doesn’t necessarily predict he’ll win. “I don’t have a prediction, but I’m excited. I’m confident and I feel for the first time that I’m ready for the fight,” he said at the same press conference. “I’m so happy because that feeling and that focus that I had many years ago, is back. I’m confident and relaxed.”
I’ll give Kudos to Mayweather and Pacquiao for their politically correct responses. Their trainers? Not so nice.
Not one to shy away from drama, or a verbal jab here and there, Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach told MailOnline’s Jeff Powell he wasn’t sure if Mayweather would even show up to the fight on Saturday.
It’s a pretty absurd accusation, all revenue projections considered, but the real drama Roach insists, is about Pacquiao’s cup for the fight. “’They made a protest about Manny’s cup. They came to training this week, inspected it and approved it. The commissioner marked it and signed it to make sure it’s the one he’s wearing on the night. But it’s the regular cup.”
Floyd Mayweather Sr. snapped back, calling Pacquiao’s trainer “The Joke Coach Roach.” In response to Roach’s accusation that Mayweather may not show up, Sr. said, “Floyd’s the man to meet, If you wanna get beat.”
The verdict: this is just petty drama. Mayweather vs. Pacquiao is definitely going down on Saturday. You can take a deep breath now.
Strengths for Each Man
Floyd Mayweather
Hogan Photos
Floyd Mayweather really has the strengths the matter—expert timing, speed, power, footwork, and the right amount of patience to break his opponent down round by round. His boxing IQ is unlike anything we’ve ever seen in the sport, which is why it’s easy to say, “You can’t lose betting on Floyd.”
Lately Mayweather’s jab (to the head and body) has been really working for him. We also can’t forget the straight right hand that’s so crisp when thrown as a lead, and the check-hook. Mayweather could throw combinations if he wanted to, but his timing is so sick that it’s fun to watch him pick guys apart with those punches alone.
In addition to Mayweather being arguably the most intelligent fighter of our time, one of the most important adjustments he’s made over the course of his career for this fight is responding well to pressure. I saw it in his fight against De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton. This is an important adjustment to have made now that he’s facing Pacquiao, a fighter that isn’t afraid to take the fight to his opponent. Mayweather has mastered staying poised and controlling the fight.
Manny Pacquiao
Photo by Chris Hyde
Manny Pacquiao has quite a few strengths to brag about, all of which will contribute to the fight’s competitiveness. He has remarkable hand speed and footwork, and it will be interesting to see how Manny uses these skills against Mayweather, who also boats the same qualities.
Combinations, combinations, combinations! Pacquiao is known for them, and he has an excellent grip on using his angles to throw his opponent off, and land flurries of punches. With Pacquiao’s amazing footwork and punch speed, he’ll definitely give an elusive Mayweather something to think about, especially if he starts letting go his lead left cross go, or a right hook when Mayweather steps in with a jab.
In recent years we haven’t seen Pacquiao display the same kind of power (his last win by TKO was Miguel Cotto in 2009). There’s been some speculation as to why that is, but perhaps age and his conditioning regimen are contributing factors. If knockout power isn’t something Pacquiao is relying on to win the fight, he has plenty of other tools at his disposal.
Weaknesses for Each Man
Floyd Mayweather
Photo by Tom Casino
Knowing how to beat Floyd Mayweather is easy; actually doing it is another story. Mayweather can be beat against the ropes, but he won’t let it happen, and Pacquiao is no exception. In his most recent fights, Mayweather has spent time on the ropes to make fights more exciting.
It’s against the ropes his opponents feel like they’ve “got” him, and Mayweather knows it. While fans appreciate the excitement, Mayweather makes himself vulnerable to taking unnecessary punishment, which is about the least smart thing he could do at his age. The less you get hit, the longer you last.
Until Mayweather vs. Marcos Maidana 2, I never considered Mayweather’s age a hindrance. Over the years he’s adjusted his style and gotten sharper fight after fight. In the second bout with Maidana I noticed half way through the fight that Mayweather looked more tired than usual. For any other fighter, his energy level would be considered lively. However, by Mayweather standards, this was not the Floyd I was used to seeing.
His apparent decrease of energy in that fight is still a bit of a mystery. Mayweather is always in shape, even in the off seasons, and he doesn’t change much in his training camp. This time around he’s hired Alex Ariza as his strengthening and conditioning coach. Mayweather looked sharp and strong during his media day workout, so maybe fatigue won’t be an issue again.
Manny Pacquiao
As talented as Manny Pacquiao is, there are still a few things he needs to worry about going into the ring with Floyd Mayweather.
One worry is Pacquiao’s tendency to drop his hands when he comes in. Mayweather has often said to his opponents, “If you make any mistakes, you have to pay.” Pacquiao dropping his hands in close range would be a big mistake against someone with Mayweather’s kind of timing, speed, and longer arm reach.
Though Pacquiao came away with a victory from the fight against Chris Algieri, Algieri exposed that Manny does not do well with movement. Algieri’s style relies heavily on footwork and movement, but his is not nearly as complex, quick, or unpredictable as Mayweather’s. It took several rounds for Pacquiao to cut off Algieri, who posed no threat to Pacquiao in terms of speed or power.
A weakness I think both Pacquiao and Mayweather recognize is that both of them can be hurt. After the chilling second round of Mayweather vs. Mosely, I believe Mayweather sharpened up his fighting style and boxing IQ to protect himself. Pacquiao has been hurt earlier in his career, but Pacquiao-Marquez 4 was the first time he had been knocked out cold as an elite fighter. Unlike Floyd though, Manny’s adjustments since then have been slight—he still fights practically the same way.
Winner and Why
Though I don’t think the fight will be a complete shutout, picking Floyd Mayweather is a no-brainer. Manny Pacquiao simply isn’t smarter than Mayweather. Mayweather has the highest boxing IQ (probably ever), and he has the experience, conditioning and skills to back it up.
I see him figuring Pacquiao out in the initial rounds, using his jab a lot to the head and body. Mayweather is going to recognize what Pacquiao is good at, including his best punches and “go-to” combinations,” and take that away from him. Mayweather should steer clear of the ropes; even if shots don’t hurt him, taking unnecessary punishment can slow him down.
There’s 45 people who could tell you that once Mayweather figures you out, it’s a wrap. Two of them needed rematches to confirm what they already knew. Pacquiao’s best bet is to try and outwork Mayweather. But If Pacquiao is looking to compete against Mayweather’s brain, he definitely has his work cut out for him.
