The always dramatic and unpredictable Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. will fight for the first time in almost 14 months when he takes on Light Heavyweight contender Andrzej Fonfara this Saturday, April 18 2015 from the Stub Hub Center in Carson, California.
Chavez is coming off the hardest stretch of his professional career, which has included missing weight, a failed drug test and a DUI while only fighting a total of three times in a two year period between 2012-2014.
He suffered the first loss of his career to Sergio Martinez back in September 2012, a fight in which he was dominated. Chavez bounced back to beat smaller journeyman Bryan Vera twice, of which the first win was very controversial since many boxing followers thought Vera should have gotten the decision.
Now Chavez looks to start the next chapter in a career that has been filled with unreachable expectations of him following in his father’s footsteps. He has signed with Al Haymon, has a new trainer in Joe Goossen, and is fighting for his one year old daughter, Julia.
The only thing standing in between what boxing fans think about Chavez now, and the resurrection of his career, is Andrzej Fonfara.
Fonfara made a name for himself when he took lineal Light Heavyweight champion Adonis Stevenson the distance in their fight back in May 2014. Fonfara’s awkward length made things difficult for the much shorter Stevenson, and he even managed to knock the champ down in the ninth round.
Since losing to Stevenson, Fonfara has beaten relatively unknown contender Doudou Ngumbu back in November 2014. He has also signed with Haymon, and certainly knows that a win over a popular fighter like Chavez is beneficial for his career, and could even set him up for another title shot, possibly a rematch with Stevenson.
Tale of the Tape
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When you examine the tale of the tape, the stats that jump out at you the most are Andrzej Fonfara’s inch and a half height, and three-inch reach advantage. Fonfara has made a career out of being the taller and longer fighter, frustrating opponents by keeping them at an arms length. Since Chavez is well known for being a relentless inside fighter, it will be crucial for Fonfara to use his length to keep Chavez at a distance.
Adonis Stevenson was successful at using his athleticism to get inside the reach of Fonfara. Not only will Chavez be the more athletic man in this fight, he will also be able to use his strength to penetrate Fonfara’s defense, which will help Chavez keep the fight inside the pocket. Chavez has shown success getting inside on a taller fighter in the past, when he stopped 6’2’’ Andy Lee in the seventh round of their fight back in June 2012.
Be sure to keep an eye on how well Fonfara is able to move at the contracted catch weight of 172 pounds, and if he shows any signs of being drained from weight loss. Also, look for how well Chavez’s legs and conditioning hold up at a weight that is just one pound lighter than what left him looking sluggish in his first fight against Brian Vera.
Main Storylines
Photo by Esther Lin/Showtime
Whenever Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is fighting he is the main storyline primarily because his unpredictability gives boxing fans and writers something to talk about. Combine that with his father being the biggest Mexican boxing star ever , and you’ve got one of the most captivating and popular boxing figures in the sport today.
When Chavez left Top Rank and signed with Al Haymon back in late 2014, it created a legal battle between TR and Chavez that wasn’t settled until just last week.
Chavez and Top Rank have settled their contract dispute. My blog: http://t.co/a3lSh9kWwF#boxing
— Dan Rafael (@DanRafael1) April 10, 2015
Now that Haymon has Chavez under his wing, the Mexican slugger is poised to become of the most watched fighters in boxing once again. Even while pissing people off, Chavez drew higher ratings numbers than any other fighter on HBO or Showtime in 2014. If he looks good against Fonfara, and eventually ends up on Premier Boxing Champions fighting on free network television, he could end up drawing top numbers once again.
Chavez’s biggest problem though is himself, he’s his own worst enemy. The ferocious fighter who once gave his heart to the fans seems to have transformed into a lazy underachiever. Now it’s up to him to prove this weekend that he still has the desire to be at his best.
While all the typical drama and questions that surround Chavez remain, Andrzej Fonfara is free to prepare to play spoiler.
Fonfara sounded confident during the media call to announce the fight saying:
[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]“I’m feeling great. I think Chavez Jr. is a great fighter, world champion, and you know, it’s a good fight for me. I trained hard for the fight. We got very good camp. Now, we start a sparring session. You know, my weight is good. My training’s–all trainings are good. I spent two weeks in Houston. I’m trained there, too. Then I’m back to Chicago. We finished camp here. And I’m–you know, I’m ready for meet Chavez in the ring April 18 and show him I’m better boxer.”[/otw_shortcode_quote]
Fonfara also spoke about fighting at lighter than 175 pounds for the first time since 2009:
[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]“I usually fight at 175, at least for maybe two years. And this my weight. It’s not impossible for me to go, like, two, three pounds down because, you know, when I fought Stevenson last year in May, I was 173 then. And I felt good then. Two pounds down is not problem for me. Should be good, you know? Just more diet, more work in the last week. And I should be good.”[/otw_shortcode_quote]
Strengths for Each Man
As mentioned in “Tale of the Tape,” Andrzej Fonfara has a healthy height and reach advantage over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., which will be his best defense against Chavez’s aggression.
Chavez spoke during his media workout about Fonfara’s height advantage.
[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]“I am fighting [Andrzej] Fonfara now because I like big opponents. I like the challenge of fighting good, hungry fighters. Just because Fonfara doesn’t have the name recognition of other fighters, it doesn’t make him an easy fighter. He’s tough.”[/otw_shortcode_quote]
Chavez may say he likes fighting bigger fighters, but it is one thing to say it, and another to prove it inside the ring. In Fonfara’s fight against Stevenson, he got better and stronger as the fight progressed. If Chavez is not in top shape, and his legs don’t have the strength to continuously pressure Fonfara late in the fight, then it will be Fonfara who will be able to use his length advantage to win the late rounds.
Fonfara also has been much more active than Chavez, fighting at Light Heavyweight seven times in the past three years. Including his fight against Adonis Stevenson. As well as wins over journeyman Glen Johnson in 2012, and over contenders Tommy Karpency, Gabriel Campillo, and Samuel Miller, all three of which Fonfara defeated by knockout.
Photo by Eric Gay
Chavez’s two biggest strengths in this fight are going to be his iron chin and his relentless pressure attack, specifically to the body.
Keeping true to his Mexican fight style, Chavez will be swallowing punches from Fonfara while working his way inside. Good thing for Chavez he has one of the best beards in the business, and it’s easy to assume that Fonfara will not have enough strength in his punches to keep him at bay.
Chavez’s trainer Joe Goossen spoke about training camp and how Chavez is looking going into the fight.
[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]“Lake Tahoe was tremendous for training camp. You are isolated and it’s not an easy thing. When you aren’t training you are sitting in a hotel room. You are deprived the comforts of home, but it really gives you that concentration and dedication factor and I think that will interpret into some positive results.”[/otw_shortcode_quote]
A tireless body attack is the perfect way to chop down a larger fighter like Fonfara. If Chavez can take Fonfara’s legs from him in the middle rounds, he’ll be able to keep him on the ropes and in the corners, where Chavez will be able to flurry punches downstairs. This will eventually leave Fonfara guessing Chavez’s punches, opening him up to being tagged to the head.
Weaknesses for Each Man
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.’s biggest weakness since his loss to Sergio Martinez back in September 2012 has been his heart and desire. When your success has been built around being tougher and more relentless than your opponent, it’s destructive to be out of shape. If Chavez doesn’t have the endurance to outwork Fonfara, and the desire to break him down from the inside-out, he’s going to lose this fight.
He’ll also have to overcome a great deal of ring rust. His two wins over Brian Vera leading into this fight are no way to prepare for a tough match-up against a legitimate top-ten Light Heavyweight contender. We just saw Peter Quillin and Danny Garcia struggle in their fights coming off a year of inactivity and fighting easy opponents, it will be interesting to see how Chavez deals with facing true adversity from Fonfara, who is coming off of a battle tested 2014.
When asked about his son fighting Fonfara in his first fight back after a year-long layoff, Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. spoke bluntly saying
[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]“I would’ve liked to have seen him take a tune up fight instead because of his long layoff, I particularly didn’t want this fight.”[/otw_shortcode_quote]
Even though Andrzej Fonfara says the catch weight will have no negative effect on him, there’s a good chance it will. It’s just human nature, even if he was walking around at less than 175 pounds before the Stevenson fight, mentally he’s become accustom to that weight limit, which he has been fighting at for five years. Any lack of energy for Fonfara could certainly effect his ability to withstand Chavez’s attack.
His slow feet and size make him a huge target for opponents, which will play right into the hands of an aggressor like Chavez. In the sport of boxing, losing just the slightest bit of strength can be the difference between wrapping an opponent up, and being hit with a crippling shot.
Fonfara is also going to have to show a stronger chin than he has in the past, unlike Chavez, we’ve seen him knocked down, and even seen him stopped by Derrick Findley back in 2008. What Fonfara lacks in athleticism and speed, he’ll have to make up for with toughness, intelligence, and conditioning.
Winner and Why
Before you make your pick, ask yourself, “Do I think Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has changed?” Is he more determined with Joe Goossen?” It’s the number one deciding factor in the fight, because if Chavez is in shape and can continuously pressure Fonfara, he will have a clear advantage in what should be an exciting war of attrition.
It is true, Chavez vs. Fonfara has a good chance of being a high action fight between two big guys who don’t do a lot of running. It will be Chavez on the attack and Fonfara fighting off the pressure. Both guys are proven tough, and both are fighting with a hell of a lot on the line.
I don’t think we’ll ever again see the Chavez Jr. who beat Sebastian Zbik, Peter Manfredo Jr., Marco Antonio Rubio, and Andy Lee between 2011-2012, but I do think we’ll see an older, more mature fighter enter the ring with his career on the line, and his daughter on his mind.
[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]“Going to Lake Tahoe and really working hard is a sign of maturity and I think that’s what Julio is going through right now. He really showed it by leaving his home and spending an extended period of time up there. To me that is a great indicator that he is mature, dedicated and taking this fight very seriously.” – Joe Goossen on Chavez’s maturity.[/otw_shortcode_quote]
I see Chavez controlling the fight by keeping the action out of the center of the ring. By using constant aggression to dictate Fonfara’s positioning, he will be able to work his way inside the reach of Fonfara by taking punches and using his athletic advantage. Once Chavez is in the pocket he’ll be able to produce a high punch output to Fonfara’s body, and set up combinations to the head.
Fonfara doesn’t possess the type of power to hurt Chavez and doesn’t have the speed to move away from danger. There’s really nothing Fonfara will be able to do to keep Chavez out of his chest. It will however be pivotal for Chavez to pace himself, because even a fighter in good shape can punch himself out if he doesn’t control his output.
Expect a close and competitive fight, and in these cases I tend to lean towards the aggressor, that’s Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Check out All Access with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. right here on RoundByRoundBoxing.com:
