AP Photo
Hungry. Fierce. Focused. Relentless.
If I were only talking about one fighter this prediction would be easy, but both Keith “One Time” Thurman (24-0, 21 KOs) and Robert “Ghost” Guerrero (32-2-1, 18 KOs) are all of these things. Two fighters with different stances but comparable styles and heart will keep boxing fans on the edge of their seats as they headline NBC’s Premier Boxing Champions card this Saturday, March 7, 2015, with the WBA Welterweight title on the line.
For a while, the bouts on NBC were pure speculation, and now they have become reality. Finally, fight fans can look forward to seeing competitive matchups among the talented divisions, and this is a spectacular way to kick off the fights.
We get to see an undefeated Thurman and ambitious Guerrero, two of the top 10 welterweights, throw on the gloves for what has the potential to be a fight of the year. Two things are for sure: One Time Thurman is not afraid to press the action more than once, and Guerrero is not the Patrick Swayze ghost you’re used to.
We can rest easy knowing that Thurman vs. Guerrero should not fall short in the action department.
Tale of the Tape
[table id=53 /]
With the tale of the tape being a numbers the game, the stats give Robert Guerrero the edge. The 31 year-old Gilroy, CA native stands at 5’8” with a long 70” reach. Keith Thurman, the younger opponent from Clearwater, FL, is not much shorter, standing at 5’7 ½” with a 69” reach.
Thurman’s experience in rounds boxed (93) pales in comparison to Guerrero’s 237 rounds boxed. Not to mention, Guerrero has spent those rounds boxing some of the toughest fighters in the welterweight division including Floyd Mayweather Jr., someone Thurman has aspired to fight for a while now.
Most of the fights in the early days of Thurman’s career ended in the earlier rounds, while lately he’s been experiencing what it takes to go the distance. Guerrero’s resume is certainly longer than Thurman’s; the latter boasts a knockout percentage (84 percent) that is almost twice as high as Guerrero’s 48.65 percent.
In other words, Guerrero may have been around the block a few times, but Thurman should not be underestimated because of his age or experience.
Main Storylines
When NBC announced it would be hosting PBC on its channel, the boxing community sensed this would be a huge break-through in connecting the sport to mainstream audiences. The boxing gods, or just Al Haymon, chose the right card to start off this huge turning point in boxing. Perhaps this also sheds some light on why one of the card’s headliners, Keith Thurman, turned down a multi-million dollar offer by Roc Nation Sports last year.
Robert Guerrero certainly agrees that PBC is a huge step for the sport of boxing. “Al Haymon is brilliant for bringing boxing back to network television, especially on NBC,” he told RingTV.com. He had no problem admitting Thurman brings a lot to the table, though Guerrero has a strategy of his own:
[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]His strength is definitely in his power. Thurman has a high knockout ratio and he’s the naturally bigger man, who’s never fought under 147-pounds. I’m not going to talk about his weaknesses because that’s confidential information. I will be testing his chin though; that you can count on.[/otw_shortcode_quote]
Thurman on the other hand, doesn’t think this will be an easy fight for Guerrero, and plans to one-up Floyd Mayweather’s performance against him. He declared in response to Jeff Mayweather’s characterization of him as “average” that he is far from that (via BadLeftHook.com).
[otw_shortcode_quote border=”bordered” border_style=”bordered”]Call me average if you want to. My punching power and knockout ratio are not average. My ring intelligence isn’t average. We’ll prove it on March 7th. We have an opportunity to out-perform Mayweather and we’re going to do so.[/otw_shortcode_quote]
Thurman’s trainer, Dan Birmingham, confirms this, noting that he recognized above average talent in Thurman at 15 years old. “We saw he could box with anybody and was also knocking grown men out.” (via Premier Boxing Champions).
His trainers even developed the “Thurman Test,” where fresh faces in the gym would have to spar 15 year-old Thurman to assess their skill level. If Thurman wasn’t afraid of fighting grown men then, there’s no reason to believe he’s afraid now.
Strengths for Each Man
Photo by Naoki Fukada
Keith Thurman has many positive attributes that can help him beat Robert Guerrero. He is ruthless, but he is also a very focused and technically-gifted fighter. Mentally, Thurman always appears to be totally honed in on his opponent the moment the first bell goes off, if not before.
You can immediately tell that Thurman wants to be there and no matter the opponent in front of him, he wants to win.
In addition to deep thinking in the ring, it is no secret that Thurman is fast and packs dangerous power, especially in his right hand and lead hook. He also knows how to use his jab to thwart his opponent’s attacks while setting up his own.
Thurman is able to set up punches by using his quick and strategic footwork, which is something Robert Guerrero had trouble with when fighting Floyd Mayweather.
Fighting a southpaw may not be an issue for Thurman, as he even managed to switch to the stance himself and drop Leonard Bundu with a nasty left uppercut in his last bout. We’ll have to stay tuned to see if Thurman has the guts to try a move like that on Guerrero, but it would be great for the highlight reels.
Photo by Ping Nepo/CrossFit
After studying Thurman and Guerrero’s most recent fights, I have noticed they have quite similar fighting styles. Besides being one of the toughest southpaws in the game, Guerrero too has a wicked jab. The lead hand is super-important as a first line of defense and offense when southpaw and orthodox fighters face each other.
Guerrero has already put himself in good standing by mastering a quick jab he can even throw back-to-back with purpose.
If you know Guerrero, you know he loves fighting on the inside with those powerful, crisp punches. Thurman also loves a good brawl, which is great intel for Guerrero to keep in the back of his mind.
If Guerrero can bully Thurman into exchanges on the inside, he’ll feel right at home and will eliminate variables like jazzy footwork, something that Thurman would want to use on the outside and at mid-range.
Weaknesses for Each
Photo by Naoki Fukada
Keith Thurman has developed a great amount of confidence from his power and ability to score knockouts. However, this type of confidence can become a weakness when a fighter like Thurman faces an opponent that does not fold easily. So was the case in his most recent fight, where Leonard Bundu was not as easy to destroy as Thurman thought.
While the fight proved to be more of learning curve for Thurman than absolute catastrophe, I’m still concerned that Thurman can be discouraged easily.
Robert Guerrero is one of those fighters that cannot be simply destroyed. Thurman will put himself at risk if he becomes reckless trying to knock Guerrero out. Thurman’s best bet is to outbox and outwork Guerrero.
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
Guerrero loves to work on the inside, but he can spend way too much time there. Stylistically, this may be more of his preference, but switching up his ranges will prevent him from taking unnecessary punishment and keep his opponents on their toes. Thurman is no cakewalk, and the proof is in the punches.
I have also noticed that Guerrero is the most uncomfortable on the outside, particularly when his opponent has a skilled command of footwork and lateral movement. Hopefully Guerrero has learned a thing or two since Floyd Mayweather had him spinning in circles, and he can master cutting off the ring if Thurman wants to dance.
Winner and Why
Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
This was not an easy prediction to make, as I believe the bout between Robert Guerrero and Keith Thurman will be fiercely competitive. Thurman’s best chance of beating Guerrero is by staying completely on the outside, but I don’t anticipate that Guerrero or Thurman will let the fight happen that way.
Stylistically speaking, this is looking more and more like a bout when a fighter comes face to face with himself. For Thurman, his slightly older, more experienced self. I’m not yet convinced Thurman has matured to a place where he can handle not being able to knock a guy out. I fear that under this pressure, Thurman will become slightly reckless, making himself vulnerable to Guerrero’s power.
Thurman isn’t anything Guerrero hasn’t seen before, and so most of my confidence rests with him. I do know that this welterweight matchup is one of the most exciting in a long time. At the very least, Thurman-Guerrero should bring the perfect balance of technical skill and toe-to-toe warfare that boxing fans desperately crave.
Winner: Guerrero
