Danny “Swift” Garcia faces his biggest challenge yet, in his fight against Lucas “The Machine” Matthysse on Saturday, September 14.
In a bout that may very well steal the show as the co-main event for Canelo Alvarez vs. Floyd Mayweather, Garcia (26-0, 16 KOs) will have to use his amateur background to force Matthysse (34-2, 32 KOs) to make mistakes; while Matthysse should begin the fight by pressing the action early and making it ugly.
Read on for the keys to victory for both Garcia and Matthysse.
Keys for Danny Garcia
Box and Counter-Punch
If ever there were a time to box for Garcia, September 14 would be the night. Matthysse’s awkward style makes for a right hand that is wide and, if you’re experienced enough, easy to see coming.
Garcia must be able to use his jab from a distance, preferably from a high-guard boxing stance because he needs a vantage point from which he can see the wild right hand coming.
Garcia must not lunge forward with his jab because, as we saw with Matthysse’s fight with Mike Dallas Jr., a counter right hand is in his arsenal.
Go the Distance
In his fights with Judah and Alexander he lost because his opponents weren’t easy targets and, as is the case with many power punchers, his power began to decrease in the later rounds. Matthysse is just not as dominant in the later rounds, but that may also be because the ones able to take him to the distance were good boxers.
Although he has demonstrated with a late-round knockdown of Judah that he still may have power late within the fight, he nevertheless will lose the kind of power that made quick work of Peterson and Dallas.
Start Slowly, but Stand Your Ground.
In order to make the fight go the distance, Garcia must make Matthysse fight at his pace. Garcia will need to move, use his jab, and make sure Matthysse cannot get in easily.
However, if Garcia moves too much, he will boost Matthysse’s confidence. Matthysse’s fights with Peterson and Dallas Jr. show that Matthysse does really well when his opponent gets on his bicycle.
In fact, Garcia has even stated in a video interview that “he fought two people who wouldn’t back and he lost.” In other words, confidence and fearlessness against a power puncher plays a role.
Garcia will need to find a balance between standing his ground and using his boxing skills to avoid power shots to win this fight. Garcia must show respect, but not too much of it.
Keys for Lucas Matthysse
Start Early and Make it Ugly
Technical expertise will probably be left for Mayweather and Canelo to use in the main event, so it is without surprise that Matthysse’s first key to victory is to make the fight ugly as soon as possible.
Matthysse will have to move forward, using head movement while keeping his hands up, to prevent Garcia from finding his rhythm. Matthysse’s best chance of landing powerful punches is in the early rounds before his power begins to diminish.
Garcia, unlike Matthysse, is comfortable fighting into the later rounds, with two of his fights going into the 10th Round and three going into the 12th round. Garcia’s technique is not outstanding, but his boxing will give him the advantage as the rounds progress.
Time Garcia’s Punches
As we saw in Garcia’s fight with Erik Morales, Garcia is an easy target for the counter right hand. He is also susceptible to short punches at close range.
Morales was not able to damage Garcia because of his deteriorating abilities, but Matthysse certainly will. Matthysse has demonstrated that he has a powerful counter right hand and that he can adjust early in a fight.
Matthysse must time Garcia early and begin removing weapons from Garcia’s arsenal. Once Matthysse begins to counter the jab, Garcia will be hesitant to throw it, allowing for Matthysse to get in with greater ease. He will have to move forward with the kind of comfort seen in his fights with Peterson and Dallas.
Do Not Lunge Forward
Matthysse must not lunge forward as he has a habit of doing. Garcia plans on counter punching, and if Matthysse cannot score a knockout early in the fight, the points will begin to add up for Garcia.
If Matthysse is to successfully work on the inside he must utilize his head movement and get a full extension of his punches rather than lunging forward.
Garcia isn’t the strongest puncher in his division, but anyone can get hurt by his counter left hook when lunging forward.
Prediction
As Mike Tyson said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
Despite his boxing ability, Garcia will probably trade as soon as he gets hit with a clean shot. I have Matthysse winning this one.
Gabe Rivas is a contributing writer for Round By Round Boxing. He is a student, tutor, assistant trainer, and self-proclaimed half-assed boxer. Follow him on Instagram @GabeRivas03.
