Photo by Golden Boy Promotions
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a brawl on our hands. On occasions such as these I would normally say, “It’s time to separate the men from the boys,” but in this case we have two men that have been gravely tested in their careers. So it’s time to separate the man from the greater man.
This Saturday, April 11, 2015, Ruslan Provodnikov takes on Lucas Matthysse in a bout scheduled for an epic 12 rounds of war. Folks, this is about as even of a matchup as you’re going to get these days, so don’t be surprised if you find yourself on the fence about who to pick. You might, however, anticipate that this fight will end in a knockout.
If you have ever wondered what happens when a fighter comes face-to-face with himself, this will answer your question. Provodnikov and Matthysse are two fighters cut from the same cloth, which is why them facing each other is a match made in Verona.
What we are about to witness just might be a Fight of the Year candidate, or winner. So grab some popcorn (if you can stomach it)—there will be blood.
Tale of the Tape
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What makes this matchup so enthralling is that Ruslan Provodnikov and Lucas Matthysse are one in the same. The tape shows us their uncanny similarities in the categories that matter. Not only are both men close in age, they are about the same height, with Matthysse standing at just half an inch taller.
Matthysse has a three-inch reach advantage, which will help when using his jab to keep Provodnikov at a distance or to set up his punches. Provodnikov may have shorter arms, but they compliment his style geared toward inside fighting, allowing for crisp punches to the head and body.
You’ll also notice that Provodnikov and Matthysse boast practically identical amounts of professional ring experience, and we’re well aware both guys have faced tough competition so far in their careers. This is the kind of fight Matthysse and Provodnikov are built for.
Main Storylines
Photo by Golden Boy Promotions
They may be from two different ends of the earth, but Ruslan Provodnikov and Lucas Matthysse will share one common ground this Saturday—the ring. They may speak two different languages but there’s one they both understand—brawling.
“I can’t predict who’s going to win this fight, but I can tell you for sure that it’s definitely what the fans are expecting…it will be a real war,” said Provodnikov to the Ring Magazine in an interview following his media workout. “It’s definitely one of those fights where he’ll take me or I’ll take him.”
Provodnikov understands the stakes of this fight, but feels mentally prepared and confident to face Matthysse. He also mentioned going through quite a few sparring partners during his training camp, noting that some left because the work was too intense for them to handle.
Provodnikov isn’t the only one feeling confident coming out of his training camp. “It was a hard training camp but I feel great,” Matthysse told The Ring. “He is a fighter that likes to come and attack so we got ready for a guy that comes forward and is aggressive.” Though the similarity in Matthysse and Provodnikov’s styles has been noted, Matthysse says he isn’t doing anything differently. “I’m not going to change up—that’s my style.”
I suppose Matthysse has an “if ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality, and he seems sure of his game plan.
“Ruslan is a great fighter, he comes prepared for a war. My strategy against him will be to make sure to box and keep moving, that is why sparring has been really important in my training.”
Though Provodnikov was less certain of the outcome of the fight, Matthysse knows. “Fans can expect one of the greatest fights in the division. I know I am ready to win this fight and fans should expect a victory.”
Strengths for Each Man
Photo by Ed Mulholland
Ruslan Provodnikov is a heat-seeking missile. He has one objective and one objective only—to find and destroy you. His fearlessness makes him exciting to watch, but fearful when you’re the one being hunted. Provodnikov makes it clear to his opponent he isn’t going anywhere, so there is no use in hiding or running. His strength is in walking his opponent down—slipping, dipping, and dodging meaningless jabs to get right down to business.
That kind of aggression is necessary to make your presence known in the ring, especially against another power puncher like Matthysse. Once Provodnikov knows he can walk you down, he is ready to let his hands go; he unleashes his power with devastating combinations, using the favored overhand right as an exclamation point.
Provodnikov is fearless for a reason; he hasn’t been down once in his professional career. Given the kinds of fights he’s been in, the fact he hasn’t hit the canvas speaks volumes about the quality of his chin. This should give Provodnikov the confidence he needs to take risks against a dangerous fighter like Matthysse.
AP/Jae C. Hong
Matthysse is also built to brawl. However, one of his strengths is that he can box better than Provodnikov. This is important because if Matthysse wants, he can use his greater boxing knowledge to frustrate Provodnikov. He can dictate the pace by using his jab and exchanging when he wants to and not allow himself to be sucked in to Provodnikov’s fight.
This would probably work well for Matthysse anyway, since he is most ready to let his hands go once he finds his distance. Matthysse’s biggest strength, which really goes without saying, is his power. It’s made him feared among other fighters in his division, but we’ll have to see how he negotiates his power in a situation with Provodnikov, who has proved time and time again that he is not afraid of anyone.
Weaknesses for Each Man
Photo by Ed Mulholland
As tough as Ruslan Provodnikov is, it’s no secret he doesn’t have the sharpest boxing IQ. This is slightly surprising, given that he has one of the best trainer’s in boxing, Freddie Roach. But some are built to box, some to fight, some to do both. Provodnikov is a natural brawler, not a boxer. It works for him against other brawlers but not when someone makes him think.
Provodnikov deals the least favorably with movement, as we saw in the Chris Algieri fight. Cutting off the ring is a weakness for Provodnikov, and it may show if Lucas Matthysse decides he wants to move around in the ring and control the exchanges. Provodnikov’s success depends on making his opponent fight his fight—he doesn’t really know what to do otherwise.
Though it is outstanding he has never been down in his career, notice that all of Provodnikov’s losses have come from decisions. Provodnikov has to learn to give a decisive performance, and not just rely on knockouts to win. This would be a lot easier for him if he added more boxing technique to his arsenal.
In the push to be aggressive, Provodnikov often sacrifices the placement of his punches. Being aggressive is great—being accurate is even better. Missing shots means expending energy that doesn’t go toward beating your opponent. Matthysse has the same flaw, which is why some of his punches miss or end up hitting his opponents in illegal areas such as behind the head.
Hogan Photos
Matthysse can box better than Provodnikov, but he tends to box “defensively,” meaning that he’ll do it if he’s hurt or backed into a corner. Against a brawler like Provodnikov, boxing as a last resort usually happens too little, too late. Matthysse would need to think about boxing first and then setting up his exchanges to be successful against Provodnikov.
Unlike his opponent this Saturday, Matthysse has seen the canvas more than once in his career. Provodnikov knows he can be dropped, and will do everything in his power (literally) to see that come to fruition. The upside to Matthysse’s personality is that he is willing to take risks; the downside is those risks have consequences.
Winner and Why
Photo by Chris Farina/Top Rank
I don’t believe we’re going to see much boxing in this fight, which is just the kind of job Ruslan Provodnikov is applying for. He is made for this match, and he is going to make Lucas Matthysse fight his fight.
I highly doubt Matthysse will send Provodnikov to the canvas. The only way I see this happening is with an extremely clean, devastating body shot, but I’m not convinced Matthysse’s timing and placement can pull that off. His greatest chance at victory is boxing and staying busier than Provodnikov, landing clean punches, and moving around the ring.
The greatest pull factor in picking Provodnikov is his chin. We know this will be a brawl, and I believe Provodnikov has the chin to engage in the exchanges without going down. Matthysse has this vulnerability, but will still not shy away from a good fight on the inside. Provodnikov gets the edge in this prediction, but Matthysse brings plenty to the table for a war we’re ready to see.
