Tom Hogan – Hoganphotos/Roc Nation Sports/Miguel Cotto Promotions
Well, this isn’t the Miguel Cotto fight at the top of our list, but it’ll have to do for now. Boxing heads such as myself had high hopes for a match between Cotto and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, though it seems likely the fight will happen some time this fall.
This isn’t the Cotto fight we want, but it’s the one he needs. Before Cotto gets to Canelo he’s going to have to take care of Australian fighter Daniel Geale. I get the feeling this is supposed to be a setup fight for Cotto to face Alvarez. Though Cotto looked incredible in his last fight against an aged Sergio Martinez, it took place nearly a year ago. Cotto needs this fight to refresh and get any ring rust off before facing a young, spry fighter like Alvarez.
Geale beat Jarrod Fletcher in December, but he still hasn’t lived down his fight prior to that. Gennady Golovkin toyed with the poor Aussie for three rounds, landing devastating blows until the referee stopped the fight in the third round. If Geale can’t hang with GGG, what makes him think he can beat the likes of Cotto?
This fight may seem pretty one-sided, but tune in anyways. As last weekend’s bout between Amir Khan and Chris Algieri proved, sometimes the most seemingly one-sided fights can produce unexpected action. Cotto knows how to bring the action for sure, but can Geale handle the heat? Let’s see what each fighter brings to the table, and forecast which man will get the victory.
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Tale of the Tape
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Even though Miguel Cotto is the favorite going into this fight, the tape shows us that Daniel Geale has some advantages worth mentioning. He is noticeably taller than Cotto by three inches. While this potentially gives more opportunity for his opponent to get to the body (depending on the length and size of Geale’s torso), Geale may have an easier time slipping and dodging Cotto’s outside punches, specifically the jab and the cross. Geale also has the longer arm reach, meaning that he has a real chance to work his jab to keep Cotto off and set up his combinations.
Now, with Cotto being shorter in height and having the shorter arm reach, he’ll have to work around Geale’s jab. These so-called “disadvantages” will put Cotto in the position he craves. As the shorter guy he’ll have a much easier time getting to Geale’s body and landing those power punches. Having shorter arms is also more of an advantage when working on the inside. He’ll just have to use his jab and proper footwork to get there.
Cotto is truly a veteran fighter, as he has Geale beat by experience numerically and by the quality of opponents he’s faced. Geale may surprise us with his performance, but this all depends on how he uses the advantages at his disposal to beat Cotto.
Main Storylines
Photo by Marilyn Paulino/RBRBoxing
One of the controversial topics surrounding this fight is the catch weight at 157 pounds. Daniel Geale’s promoter Gary Shaw, voiced his concerns about the weight requirement saying, “I have a personal problem with catch weights. We accepted the catch weight of 157 and I’m not here to complain about the catch weight. We’re going to make the weight.”
Well, it sounds like complaining is just what Shaw is doing but catch-weight drama aside, Cotto and Geale are ready to go. During a final press conference for the fight, Cotto appeared confident as ever. He said, “All I have to worry about is my mindset during the fight. I know Daniel is a great fighter and I’m going to do my best as always to bring a good and exciting fight to all the fans.”
Geale is equally as confident in the preparations he and his team have made for the fight. “There’s no excuses,” Geale says, “I’m going in as the best fighter I can possibly be. I’m hoping Miguel Cotto is the best fighter he can be as well.”
With a middleweight championship title on the line, the competitive spirit will be in the air. At this point there’s no time to focus on having a catch weight—both fighters need to worry about making it.
Geale added, “I can’t wait to walk away with another title. I’m going in very confident and I know a lot of people aren’t giving me much of a chance, but I have a huge amount of confidence in myself knowing I’ve completed a great training camp.”
Strengths for Each Man
Miguel Cotto
Photo by Sergio Solis/RBRBoxing
Without question, Miguel Cotto has the advantage of being a veteran fighter. He and Daniel Geale are the same age, and Cotto has boxed at least 50 rounds more than his opponent. More important than the number of rounds is the quality of them.
Cotto has beaten some of the top fighters in boxing such as Sergio Martinez, Shane Mosley, Zab Judah, and Paulie Malignaggi; he’s faced greats like Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao. Win or loss, with experience like that it’s unlikely that Geale is anything Cotto hasn’t seen.
A tremendous benefit for Cotto has been working with trainer, Freddie Roach. Roach has been instrumental in revitalizing Cotto’s career and making us believe we can really root for him again. Cotto looked unbelievable in his last fight against Martinez–sharp, quick, and powerful.
Roach helped Cotto get back to what he does best. He has a great jab, decent footwork, and vicious body punches. Cotto also boasts power, especially that left hook. With Roach helping him to maximize these strengths during training, Cotto is definitely a force to be reckoned with.
Daniel Geale
Photo by Sergio Solis/RBRBoxing
Daniel Geale doesn’t boast the kind of résumé Miguel Cotto has, but going into this fight he does have the advantage of being more boxing-oriented than a brawler. He likes to use his jab and circle a bit, which may set a slower pace at the beginning of the round. Geale’s best chance at beating Cotto is by outboxing him and keeping him at an arm’s length, which he definitely has with a four-inch reach advantage.
Also, Geale has an affinity for circling to the left and right. He sometimes does so by making a smaller circle and staying right in front of his opponent. This could go well if he doesn’t retreat to the ropes, stays right in front of Cotto, is first in the exchanges, and lets his hands go.
Geale has a decent jab. He doesn’t commit to it, but it’s workable if he puts two or three jabs back-to-back. With longer arms in this fight, it would be a shame if he didn’t use the jab effectively. It’s a critical factor if he’s going to box his way to victory over Cotto.
Weaknesses
Photo by Will Hart
Miguel Cotto
Miguel Cotto doesn’t have too many weaknesses that will be a disadvantage in the fight but there are a few things he can consider to be as sharp as possible against Daniel Geale. I wouldn’t say Cotto has a strong ability to cut off the ring (though Cotto 2.0 might). However, Cotto will make this victory a lot easier for himself if he can. Geale is a mover, and not necessarily an effective one. If Cotto can take away what little footwork Geale has, he’ll be able to pick him apart easily.
One disadvantage is inactivity. Cotto may be more experienced, but Geale has been much more active than him in the past year. Cotto’s last fight was nearly a year ago, and there’s going to be a bit of ring rust on him. Geale may be a set-up fight, but Cotto shouldn’t be overconfident. He has a couple of fights left and there are better ways to lose than to Geale.
Daniel Geale
Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images
Daniel Geale’s defense is definitely one of the holes in his game. He tends to fight with his hands down and even worse, throws punches without bringing his hands back. This, in addition to getting way too comfortable before having figured his opponent out, is how GGG dropped him. Basically, Daniel Geale is more offensive-minded. Defense should be a top priority, especially when he knows his chin can send him to the canvas.
Another problem Geale will have facing a pressure fighter is that he gives his opponents too much time to think. Fighters really underestimate the importance of being first and being active in exchanges. If you’re trying to see how smart someone is, you have to give them something–even a few things at once—to think about.
Not being first gives the other person more time to get the jump on you and build their confidence.
Winner and Why
Photo by Chris Farina/Top Rank
With Miguel Cotto’s experience and improved training with Freddie Roach, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t mop the floor with Daniel Geale. Geale simply doesn’t have the confidence or poise to beat Cotto, and it shows. Geale has a jittery presence about him when he fights that makes him easy to pick apart. He isn’t great at making adjustments and his game plan in the ring is often unclear.
There are two ways to beat Cotto. Either you have to destroy him in a fight and knock him out. Or, you have to supremely outbox him. And I don’t mean just moving around and throwing a nice jab here and there. You have to break him down bit by bit.
Geale is more of a boxer, though he doesn’t have the skills to break Cotto down. He doesn’t have more than a fighter’s chance to win, but I think this fight will still produce a lot of action. I predict Cotto will walk away from this with a victory by KO.
