Nahuel Berger
By Gabe Rivas
Floyd “Money” Mayweather (44-0, 26 KOs) says that “There’s no blueprint on how to beat me.” Although many have failed in their attempts to beat him, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KOs) can learn from some of the mistakes made by those who lost to Floyd, as well as from some of the methods used to win rounds over him.
Fights from Mayweather’s past, including his fights with Miguel Cotto and Oscar De La Hoya, reveal the kinds of mistakes that must be avoided and the methods that must be used. Alvarez will have to keep these in mind if he wants to defeat Mayweather in their September 14 bout.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Jose Luis Castillo I
In a fight that many believe Mayweather lost, Jose Luis Castillo took Mayweather to the ropes, made the fight ugly, and worked the body.
Although Mayweather said he was suffering from an injury and was unable to jab effectively, Castillo did manage to look good when he had Mayweather on the ropes. This was the first time that Mayweather moved up in weight to challenge a bigger fighter and that may have been a factor.
Castillo was able to use his size to pressure Floyd until the final round and, despite Mayweather’s injury, it is clear that a bigger and stronger fighter can make a difference as the fight goes the distance.
To some, Alvarez looked tired in the final rounds with Austin Trout. Others argue that he was merely adapting to the WBC’s open scoring, realizing he could cruise through a round or two and still win the fight.
Either way, Alvarez cannot risk any round in this fight and will have to fight the final round with as much intensity as the first.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Jose Luis Castillo II
In a fight that may have vindicated Mayweather’s injury excuse, Castillo was unable to show the fierceness that, in some people’s eyes, won him the first fight. Castillo could not deal with Mayweather’s jab and began to chase Mayweather in the early rounds.
Despite losing this fight, Castillo was able to land punches when aiming at Mayweather’s chest. What Alvarez could learn from this is to not only aim for the chin and the body, but also right down the line to the chest.
Mayweather’s chest is usually stationary when throwing punches, so it will be a much easier target to hit than his chin. Furthermore, Mayweather likes to duck his punches and, if Alvarez aims for the chest, he may hit his chin.
Alvarez will have to diversify his offense as much as possible if he wants to get through Mayweather’s shoulder roll defense.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Oscar De La Hoya
In the August 31edition of All Access: Mayweather vs. Canelo, De La Hoya stated that “When I fought Floyd Mayweather, I figured out the blueprint. Yes, they gave him the decision, they gave him the fight; he beat me, but the blueprint is there.”
Mayweather, upon hearing this, quickly retorted: “How are you going to have blueprint on how to beat me [when] you didn’t beat me?”
Mayweather may be correct, but it is clear that had De La Hoya stuck to his own plan, he may have won. De La Hoya himself has said that the jab was integral to defeating Mayweather, but he often forgot to jab.
Furthermore, when De La Hoya threw the punch first, he did better in the exchange. When he let Mayweather throw first, he could not successfully land punches. Alvarez will have to continuously be the one to push the action with the jab and make sure Mayweather does not get off first.
Lastly, De La Hoya made a habit of chasing a smaller fighter, getting in range to get hit by Mayweather. Alvarez’s reach is one inch smaller than Mayweather’s, but Mayweather is comfortable counter punching at close range when on the ropes.
When coming in, Alvarez will have to watch out and not smother his own offense. It will make him an open target to close-range counter punches. Inasmuch as De La Hoya showed what not to do with a size and weight advantage, he left a blueprint. Alvarez must do what De La Hoya did without smothering his own punches, staying busy, and jabbing as if his life depends on it.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Miguel Cotto
Miguel Cotto is probably one of the most recent of Mayweather’s opponents who has been able to land some punches. Perhaps seeing himself with a bloody nose between the later rounds convinced Mayweather to switch back to a more defensive style than the one he applied to Cotto.
Furthermore, Cotto and Alvarez are similar because they like to keep their hands up very high and both like to throw combinations to the head and body.
Alvarez will most likely have a high guard because Mayweather’s offense will be too fast to bob and weave as he did with Trout. When he does this, Alvarez, just as Cotto, will be open to punches around the gloves.
Mayweather is great at adjusting and he will find his way through the gloves so Alvarez will have to be careful. Mayweather is great at throwing the right hook around the left side of the glove so Alvarez must be aware of that as well.
Also, Cotto was more successful in landing shots when Mayweather was on the ropes. Cotto was able to do this because of the shortness and the sharpness with which he throws his punches. Alvarez must not begin to throw wide shots when he has Mayweather on the ropes because he will be able to see them from a mile away.
Prediction
From the fights mentioned, it is clear that Alvarez must fight the perfect fight to win. Alvarez must start early, but be able to last until the final round.
He must be the first to throw, pressuring Mayweather with jabs, but he must not begin to chase him. He must keep his hands up high, but be aware of Mayweather’s ability to punch through and around them.
In a word, he must be disciplined enough to stick the blueprint that even De Lay Hoya couldn’t follow. I do not think that it is Alvarez’s time to shine yet, and we will see a gap in experience and speed in this pay per view event.
I believe Mayweather will win, via split decision, although it may be his toughest fight yet.
