Canelo Alvarez

Staff Predictions | Miguel Cotto vs. Canelo Alvarez

Cotto - Canelo - Tom Hogan
Photo by Tom Hogan/Roc Nation Sports/Golden Boy Promotions

Saturday, November 21, 2015, live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Miguel Cotto puts his lineal Middleweight championship on the line against Mexican superstar, Canelo Alvarez in a 12-round fight.

The fight–which is presented by Roc Nation Sports, Golden Boy Promotions, Miguel Cotto Promotions and Canelo Promotions–will headline an HBO Pay-Per-View telecast starting at 9:00 pm, EST/6:00 pm, PST.

Will it be the veteran Puerto Rican who musters up one last great performance or will the young Mexican solidify his status as the future of boxing?

Read on for Round By Round Boxing‘s staff predictions for Miguel Cotto vs. Canelo Alvarez and let us know who you think will win.

Round By Round Boxing Staff Predictions - 2020

NameWinLossTotal FightsWin Percentage
Alex Burgos3360.5
Hans Themistode4260.66666666666667
R.L. Woodson4150.8
Robert Contreras6061

Miguel Cotto
Canelo Alvarez

Cotto-Canelo Fight Gauge

Lou Catalano, Senior Writer

For some reason, this fight has had little-to-no buzz in the last couple of weeks, despite the fact that two very popular fighters are battling for the lineal Middleweight title. In fact, the biggest headline lately has been about Miguel Cotto telling the WBC to pound salt, rather than pay them to be considered their champion.

Side note–good for him. He’s the champ, bullshit strap or not. I wish he’d have gone a bit further and called a press conference. Then he could have gotten to the mic and not said a word while he used the belt as a toilet in front of horrified onlookers.

Maybe the lack of energy is because we’re still feeling the Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao hangover like that time in college when we woke up covered in blood and vomit and cocaine and women’s undergarments. Or maybe it’s because this is the third pay-per-view fight in three months.

Either way, this fight may not do as well as people were initially thinking when it was first announced. But, the good news is that it should be a damn fine fight. Both men are vulnerable. Both are skilled. Both need this fight. Cotto has edges in experience and corner men, Canelo has edges in size and youth.

I’ve played this thing out a dozen times in my mind, and I am really having a hard time seeing Cotto win this thing. I think he starts out well, controls the action for a few rounds, and then wilts as Canelo’s combination punching takes effect. Canelo by late stoppage.

Prediction: Canelo


Marilyn Paulino, Photographer

Prediction: Canelo


Tony Calcara, Staff Writer

This has all the makings of the fight of the year for 2015.

It’s Mexico versus Puerto Rico on the highest level and an elite matchup boxing fans have awaited for several years.

Cotto (40-4, 33 KOs) is on an impressive three-fight win streak since teaming with Freddie Roach. At 35, he looks more like the attacking destroyer of old.

At 25, Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 KOs) has only one loss on his dossier, to Floyd Mayweather, and the draw came very early in his career.

Both fighters experienced a period of instability as Cotto suffered losses to Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather, and Austin Trout.  Many thought he was at the end of his hall of fame career. Alvarez also lost to Mayweather and at times struggled with Trout, Angulo and Lara.

As Cotto exploded with three-straight wins, Alvarez exploded by separating James Kirkland from his senses and from the conscious world.

Each have rock solid chins and off the chart heart and desire. Youth and hand speed go to Alvarez, while experience and the far better corner goes to Cotto.

Although odds makers list Alvarez as the betting favorite, I like Cotto to win.  The Alvarez corner concerns me, especially if he gets into trouble early.  Cotto’s power, boxing ability and ring generalship will provide a test that Alvarez has struggled against when meeting A-class fighters.

Prediction: Cotto


Porfirio Barron, Jr., Photographer

Prediction: Canelo


Mike Burnell, Staff Writer

Miguel Cotto (40-4, 33 Kos) was scheduled to defend his WBC middleweight championship this Saturday against Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (45-1-1, 32 Kos) until being stripped of said title on Tuesday for refusing to pay approximately $1.1 million in sanctioning fees and step aside money to Gennady Golovkin.

The fight will of course take place, but only Alvarez will be eligible to wear the WBCs dented crown should he emerge the winner and it’s my feeling that he will.

The edge in quality of opposition favors Cotto, while youth is obviously Canelo’s advantage. A size advantage may be argued as Freddie Roach thinks that Canelo’s size will make him slow and susceptible to be picked apart by Cotto.

This is a great Mexico vs. Puerto Rico rival fight, but Cotto will never be confused for Willie Pep and I don’t expect him to be able to outbox the youngster for long. It will be competitive and Canelo will have to pass a chin check, but I believe that his youth and aggression will be enough to garner him a 12-round decision.

Prediction: Canelo


Jeff Charles, Videographer

Prediction: Canelo


Amber Williams, Photographer

Prediction: Canelo



Peter Nieves, Staff Writer

Miguel Cotto vs. Canelo Alvarez is a very interesting matchup. You’ve probably heard or read about how evenly matched the two fighters are and how it’s a 50/50 fight. It took a while for me to come up with who I believe will come out victorious in this fight, but after thinking long and hard I’ve made my prediction. I think Canelo is a young hotshot, boxer puncher who has great power and some pretty nice hand speed.

My only knock on him is that I’m not sure he’s progressed at the rate he should be, or that he’s even had enough tough opposition to be able to advance his skill set. Essentially, I feel like I’ve seen the same Canelo Alvarez for the past few fights and I’m not sure he has the experience to be able to make adjustments in the later rounds if he were to find himself in trouble.

Cotto’s resume is that of a future hall of famer. Not only is he the first Puerto Rican to win titles in four different weight classes, he’s also faced the toughest of competition while accomplishing this. Sure, he’s taken some losses along the way and he probably lost to some guys that he should’ve beaten, but when a fighter loses, you also gain a lot of knowledge and experience. Just when everyone thought Cotto was finished after taking his loss to Austin Trout, in comes Freddie Roach.

Roach has rejuvenated Cotto’s career and has all boxing fans wondering, how far can Cotto take this? Well, an impressive showing against Canelo could stir up the interest of some really good matchups. The obvious is against everybody’s favorite Kazakh, Gennady Golovkin. Roach is also under the belief, that a good showing from his guy could spark the interest of former pound-for-pound king, Floyd “Money” Mayweather to come back for one last hurrah.

My final prediction: I believe Alvarez will come out strong and apply good pressure on Cotto and take some of the opening rounds. Cotto will make adjustments and wear down the Mexican’s body with vicious hooks. By the mid to late rounds Alvarez will begin to fade and will have trouble making the necessary changes in game plan. Cotto will capitalize with what I believe to be superior ring IQ and boxing ability and eventually stop Canelo in the 10th via a body shot.

Prediction: Cotto


Ardy Ajoste, Graphic Designer

Prediction: Cotto


Sarah Gruber, Staff Writer

I find this fight extremely hard to pick a clear winner. It will be a great fight. The winner will be the person who can stick to their gameplan and not get lured in to fighting outside of their comfort zone.

I think if Miguel Cotto can use his true boxing skills and quicker footwork he can out box Canelo Alvarez. Cotto should also look to bring his left hook back as a strong weapon in this fight. If Cotto can stay away from Canelo’s thunderous power and take the fight to a decision, he will win.

Keyword: “If.” This is truly anyone’s fight, but gun to my head I have to pick Cotto by decision.

Prediction: Cotto


Sergio Solis, Photographer

Prediction: Canelo


Vladimir Lik, Contributing Writer

Canelo Alvarez by sixth-round TKO. Canelo is too strong and looks super confident coming off his explosive knockout of James Kirkland.

Miguel Cotto has been in too many wars and his age will catch up to him.

Prediction: Canelo


Art Hernandez, Photographer

Prediction: Cotto


Brandon Glass, Staff Writer

I used to be a Canelo Alvarez skeptic. I still am somewhat, but I can’t deny that he’s run the gauntlet at 154 with his last five fights. I could get picky, but I’ll let Canelo live because he’s pretty much faced everyone I cared to see him fight at Junior Middleweight.

He’s matured as a fighter and has outgrown that division. Canelo should be more comfortable with one additional pound, even though it might not seem all that significant. That will give him an edge in power and particularly conditioning, which has been an issue in the past.

Cotto on the other hand has been defying expectation in a weight class that he seems too small for. All of his fights at Middleweight have ended before the final bell, albeit, against mediocre competition. He’s been able to carry the power of his rediscovered left hook with him, but question marks still surround his legitimacy as “the man” at 160.

I think Cotto survives a few big punches to take this fight by TKO in the later rounds. While Canelo has made significant progress as a boxer, he still faces a superior boxer in Cotto, who has proven to be underrated in terms of ring IQ and footwork. Plus the fact that Canelo still loves to stand front and center to his opponent, gives Cotto many opportunities to exploit with that hard jab and signature left hook all night.

Prediction: Cotto


Omar Martinez, Photographer

Prediction: Canelo


Liam Brady, Graphic Designer
I can see Miguel Cotto starting off imposing his sharp jab, similar to the start of the Daniel Geale fight, moving lightly and swiftly on his feet.

Canelo Alvarez will probably get frustrated as his face keeps getting tagged with jabs. However, there will be a point in the fight where they are going to get up close and personal on the inside.

We recently saw this with Cotto and Geale, when they got into a skirmish and the distance got smaller, and both fighters tried to land their inside shots before their opponent did. Cotto obviously got his hook on point before Geale.

My point is, it won’t stay on the outside. I expect both fighters to get close and land their killer shot, but the question is who will land first? Cotto’s hook or Canelo’s uppercut?

Both land their money punches with adequate precision and speed, but I’d say Canelo lands his uppercut first. Looking back at Canelo’s stoppage of Josesito Lopez reminds you that this guy has some pretty fast hands on the inside.

I’m torn, but I’ll just go out there and say Canelo. Stoppage in the middle to late rounds, namely six to eight. I think by then he should have cut the ring and distance off, as I believe Cotto will box first of all with his footwork and jab–and Freddie has echoed that numerous times in interviews.

Cotto has said it will be a war, but with his miles on the clock I don’t see him offering himself for a tear up, he will be street wise. Cotto will box for a few rounds and frustrate Canelo, but the young Mexican will be patient and wait for that shot which will unstable Cotto–as Cotto will have to fight inside at some point. Then maybe Cotto gets back up on unsteady legs and an accumulation of punches makes the referee step in.

Prediction: Canelo


Alex Burgos, Editor-in-Chief

The highly-anticipated matchup between Miguel Cotto and Canelo Alvarez is finally only a couple of days away. Two proud warriors on the opposite ends of the career spectrum will lay it all on the line on Saturday night in hopes of adding a big victory not only to their resume, but also for their respective countries in the already storied Puerto Rico versus Mexico rivalry.

This bout is a legacy fight at the core and although Cotto will tell you it is just another fight, he knows just how important this fight is for his place in boxing history–particular among the great Puerto Rican champs. Canelo has embraced the importance of this fight and desperately wants to add Cotto’s name to his win column so that he can solidify his claim as boxing and Mexico’s next big star..

So who wins?

I believe the early rounds will belong to Cotto, with Freddie Roach laying out a game plan that involves a lot of movement, angles and jabs. Cotto is no Floyd Mayweather or Erislandy Lara–two fighters who baffled Canelo with slick movement–but the lineal Middleweight champ can stick and move enough early on to dictate the pace and win rounds–think Cotto versus Antonio Margarito.

While the youth versus experience storyline has been played up endlessly in the build up to this fight, I think stamina versus stamina is a better angle. We’ve seen both men fade as the fight goes on, so the key will be how the early rounds play out. Will they be quiet rounds or will they be grueling? For Canelo, I think it’s okay if he loses some early rounds as long as he leaves his imprint. By that I mean putting in work that’ll change the landscape of the later rounds.

For Cotto, he must limit the big, close-quarter exchanges. He can’t expect to let the quick-fisted Canelo get off three and four punch combo’s and still feel fresh midway through the fight. Cotto must land his hooks to the body to slow Canelo down and make the younger man second guess coming forward all night.

So the question is do I think Canelo can do enough damage early on to catch Cotto in the later stages of the fight? I think so. While I won’t be totally shocked if Cotto pulls off the victory, I think Canelo will get to Cotto enough and break him down late for a stoppage victory.

Prediction: Canelo

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