Photos By Craig Bennett
The similarities in career trajectory between Abner Mares and Leo Santa Cruz are remarkable. Both blew up on Showtime right around 2011-2012. Mares outworked everybody in Showtime’s Bantamweight tournament, and he had fans drooling over a possible shootout with Nonito Donaire, who at the time was shredding everything in his path on HBO.
Santa Cruz was busy overwhelming opponents by throwing caution, defense and sanity aside in favor of firing off eleventy thousand punches at a time. Both crept up on pound-for-pound lists.
But.. There’s always a but. Mares got iced, shockingly knocked out in the first round by Jhonny Gonzalez, an older-but-always-dangerous puncher. And while Santa Cruz didn’t suffer a major defeat like Mares, he suffered from awful, pathetic choices in opponents. Blame him, blame his promoter Al Haymon, whatever, it doesn’t matter. The point is he has fought poor competition and has looked increasingly shaky in doing so.
Still, this remains a fascinating matchup between young guys who both need to look good Saturday night on ESPN. Here, we take a look at some of the more intriguing aspects of the fight, one that may end up being a fight of the year contender.
The first thing to look for is Mares’ plan of attack. Mares was always known for walking down opponents. He was a stalker, a guy who could throw hard shots with both hands while cutting off the ring. Then, he got waxed.
Sometimes, that changes a fighter, especially one known for his aggressiveness. Many pundits have noted that Mares seems to move more after the knockout loss. The problem is, he’s not that great of a mover. In fact, he got drilled with that left hook from Gonzalez when he was backing up. He never saw it coming, and he paid dearly.
I’m looking for him to press the attack and meet Santa Cruz head-on. He’ll eat some shots of course, Santa Cruz is one of the best at laying the leather, but he’ll be able to land some of his own bombs. If he tries to outbox Santa Cruz, he’ll be out-landed, and he’ll lose. He needs to stand his ground and fire away. Santa Cruz can’t hurt him like Gonzalez did.
Next, let’s see if Santa Cruz really has slipped, or if he’s simply fighting down to his opposition. It happens. It’s hard to get geeked up to fight a guy who sells aluminum siding for a living when you’ve been showcased on CBS. If it’s the former, we’ll be able to tell right away. Santa Cruz’s main strength has always been his crystal meth-like work rate. Will the rate still be there when the bell rings Saturday? Will he be as accurate? Can he land the jab to set up the body shots? If he’s not the same guy anymore, he won’t be crisp, and Mares will likely tee off on him.
As I mentioned before, Santa Cruz doesn’t score one-punch knockouts. When he does earn a stoppage, it’s due to simple physics. Eventually, opponents just can’t handle the volume. But Mares has fought volume punchers before, and he’s done well. (Debilitating nut shots helped, but whatever).
Santa Cruz will need more than that. The good news? He probably has more. I’m not buying that he’s lost a step. I think Mares will bring out the goods in Santa Cruz, and he’s going to come out blazing.
Finally, let’s see who’s hungrier–the guy who suffered the indignity of an upset first round KO, or the man who is frequently castigated on social media as one of the examples of The Haymon Effect.
Mares might be the one with the loss on his record, but he’s fought much, much better opposition. Santa Cruz, while undefeated, gives the impression that he’s a protected fighter. Even if Mares isn’t the same boxer he once was, he’ll show us the truth.
The PBC fights have been, for the most part, very mediocre. Even fights that looked like possible shootouts on paper have left a bit to be desired, aside from Marco Huck vs. Krzysztof Glowacki. But this one actually has me pretty damn excited. We’ve got two guys who aren’t afraid to lay the leather.
Better still, they’re both pretty easy to find. Add in a sprinkle of shop-wear, and I think we’ve got the makings of a burner. Now since I’ve written this, I fully expect Mares to trip on the way into the ring and shatter a femur, because this is boxing.
But hopefully, we’ll all be talking about the fight on Monday, and not because the announcing crew had us bashing our skulls against the wall or smashing the mute button while pounding beers while openly weeping. Or is that just me?
Maybe we’ll be pounding beers, but taking time out to cheer the war going on in front of us.
