#SantaCruzMares Throwdown Fantasy preview (8/29-9/8)

Throwdown Fantasy has launched it’s latest set of games to test your ability to make boxing picks.

If you are new to Throwdown Fantasy Boxing check out out guide on how to get started here. There are eight fights to choose from which include some very strong favorites and some very game underdogs from all the big upcoming fights. Choose wisely.

Leo Santa Cruz ($5,400) vs. Abner Mares ($4,600) Aug. 29 – At Los Angeles (PBC on ESPN/ESPN Deportes)

For Santa Cruz to win he must be himself — a high-volume, high-accuracy whirlwind who will use his superior height and reach not to stay away but to force Mares to constantly fight on the back foot. Cutting off the ring and pinning Mares to the ropes will be key because the less angles Mares gets to use, the better. He also must resist the temptation to go for a one-punch KO in light of Mares’ first-round knockout loss to Jhonny Gonzalez because he’s a termite rather than a single-shot terminator. For Mares to win he needs to impose his versatility and make every attempt to counter count. He needs to be in constant motion to force Santa Cruz to reset his feet but he also must make those semi-circles tight in order to keep himself in punching range. Also, it doesn’t take too many landed punches to bruise and swell Santa Cruz’s face.

Our suggestion: Santa Cruz is a fantasy favorite thanks to his fantastic work rate and superior accuracy and if he gets to play the numbers game Mares will be in big trouble. He’s the bigger and longer fighter and no one has yet fully blunted his energetic attack. Mares hasn’t quite been the same fighter since the Gonzalez loss; he’s still good, but not as good as when he was at his peak. That said, he has coped with volume punchers well and if he’s close to his best form he’s dangerous. But because it appears Santa Cruz is closer to his peak than Mares is, “The Earthquake” will probably do enough to shake up the three-division titlist.

Julio Ceja ($4,800) vs. Hugo Ruiz ($4,500)

For Ceja to win he must get by the early rounds when Ruiz has proven to be dangerous and get to the later rounds where he has shown proven KO power. He also must force a faster-paced fight to give Ruiz less time to think and to set up his punches. Finally he must get inside Ruiz’s long arms where he can work the body and keep Ruiz from generating maximum power, especially with the right hand. For Ruiz to win he should use his jab to impose his preferred range, set up his terrific right cross and to prevent Ceja from working the body, where he has proven to be superior. He also must establish his power early to make Ceja think twice about charging inside.

Our suggestion: This match-up of Mexican bombers should provide plenty of fireworks — and plenty of chances for bonus points for knockdowns and knockouts. Ceja is the slight favorite because of his consistent volume and late-fight strength while Ruiz is a viable underdog because of his early power. He did slow down in the final three rounds against then WBA bantamweight titlist Koki Kameda in Japan, which closed the points gaps just enough to turn an upset into an upsetting loss and if the fight goes into the second half he could throttle down in a similar way.

Shane Mosley ($5,100) vs. Ricardo Mayorga ($4,100) At Inglewood, Calif. (Integrated Sports PPV)

For Mosley to win he needs to assert his superior skills and speed while ignoring Mayorga’s histrionics. If he drops his hands and asks to be hit in the face, Mosley should hit him in the face — again and again. For Mayorga to win he must make the 154-pound limit safely (because he scaled 173 in his last fight nine months ago) and he must mix psychological and physical warfare in equal doses to rattle Mosley’s cage. He also must force Mosley out of his strategic comfort zone because “Sugar Shane” usually enters the ring with no Plan B if something goes awry. Finally, he must land his right hand early and often, both to the head and body.

Our suggestion: Even as he nears his 44th birthday Mosley remains a committed gym rat while Mayorga’s conditioning has always been inconsistent. In their first fight seven years ago Mosley didn’t throw much (33.1 punches per round) but he made the most of every blow (36% overall, 25% jabs, 47% power) while also limiting Mayorga to 12%, 3% and 16% respectively before scoring the final-second KO. Stable usually beats scattered, especially when both fighters have experienced a similar amount of erosion, and worse yet for Mayorga he’s been a sieve against most of his best opponents. Finally, Mosley will be fighting before his home crowd in Inglewood, California, which surely will lift him to his best effort. In short, Mosley’s “better” has always been better than Mayorga’s “better” — and probably always will be.

Juergen Braehmer ($4,900) vs. Konni Konrad ($4,200) Sept. 5 – At Dresden, Germany

For Braehmer to win he must keep Konrad at long range and pop in plenty of one-twos, then dig hard lefts to the body. He should take advantage of Konrad’s uneven pacing by working consistently and piling up points. For Konrad to win he should break down Braehmer’s defense with jabs to the body, which proved effective during his draw with Mehdi Amar. Unlike the Amar fight, he should use it consistently. He also should fire right hands down the middle as well as wide hooks while keeping his lead foot outside that of his southpaw opponent. The 30-year-old Konrad also must hope that the 36-year-old titlist’s skills have eroded.

Our suggestion: These two are very familiar with one another as they once were sparring partners and stablemates. Konrad is viewed as a big underdog for good reason and Braehmer’s steadiness and experience will hold him in good stead. Neither are big output fighters nor do they generate big percentages, plus Braehmer was hit often last time out by Robin Krasniqi’s power punches (46%) before scoring a ninth-round stoppage. Konrad, however, didn’t show enough in his bouts with Amar and Vasyl Kondor (KO 5) to indicate that he’s a serious threat to Braehmer.

Anthony Dirrell ($5,800) vs. Marco Antonio Rubio ($4,000) Sept. 6 – At TBA (PBC on CBS)

For Dirrell to win he must not repeat the mistake he committed last time out against Badou Jack: Spending the entire fight looking for the one-punch knockout and allowing his opponent to steal the late rounds. He should use his superior hand speed to shred Rubio’s guard and gain access to his reachable chin (Rubio’s last five opponents have hit him with a combined 37% of their power shots) and his devastating power to close escrow. For Rubio to win he needs to cut the distance on Dirrell, who stands four-and-a-half inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage, and try to out-hustle his notoriously methodical opponent (49 punches per round over Dirrell’s last five as opposed to Rubio’s 62.9 per round work rate over his last five CompuBox-tracked bouts). Dirrell needs room to work and staying inside will adversely affect the champion’s leverage. Hopefully his earnest work will again deplete Dirrell’s gas tank in the late rounds.

Our suggestion: Although Dirrell can be out-worked, he is younger, faster and a proven power-hitter at super middleweight while the 35-year-old Rubio is moving up in weight, coming off a shattering KO loss and returning to the ring following a career-long 323-day layoff. Dirrell will be the heavy favorite and perhaps Rubio’s aged carcass will spur him to produce more spectacular numbers than has been the case recently.

Jamie McDonnell ($5,100) vs. Tomoki Kameda ($4,700)

For McDonnell to win he needs to do what he did in the first match: Set and sustain a fast pace, keep Kameda at the end of his busy jab and land enough eye-catching combinations in enough rounds to win the decision. He also should do one thing he didn’t do in fight one — stay off the canvas. For Kameda to win he should pick up his work rate (it was only 39.9 punches per round in fight one), but not so much that he sacrifices his customary marksmanship (he landed 42% overall, 22% jabs and 51% power vs. McDonnell). He also must attack McDonnell’s long, lean body and look for openings to land his far harder punches.

Our suggestion: Except for the knockdown in round three McDonnell fought exceptionally well in terms of execution and strategy. Kameda also fought well but he has more room to improve, especially when it comes to work rate. McDonnell is priced higher because he won the first fight despite suffering a knockdown and also because of his potential for terrific volume while Kameda’s accuracy over the long haul is worth the extra expense. This is a pick-’em fight that has no wrong answer; you’ll probably get some good points no matter how you choose.

Austin Trout ($5,300) vs. Joey Hernandez ($4,200) Sept. 8 – At TBA (PBC on Fox Sports 1/Fox Deportes)

For Trout to win he must fire hard jabs to force a long-range fight, set up his left crosses and exploit Hernandez’s aggression. He also must use his legs to pivot away from Hernandez’s straight-line charges and looping blows. For Hernandez to win he has to charge in while moving his head away from Trout’s jabs, whack the body with both hands while in the trenches and muscle him if he decides to hold. If he is going to loop his punches, he should try to do so from unusual angles so that he can keep Trout guessing.

Our suggestion: Trout is the far better boxer of the two and if he turns the contest into a thinking man’s fight he will win easily. The only way Hernandez can win is if he can create a chaotic environment as a whole and land a bomb that dents Trout’s chin in particular. Otherwise Trout’s pedigree will prevail, and perhaps lopsidedly so.

Jorge Lara ($5,000) vs. Jesus M. Rojas ($4,400)

For Lara to win he needs to assert his authority early with a swarming southpaw attack and if that doesn’t get Rojas early he’ll need to use his boxing skills to pick his opponent apart. Lara must also use his excellent body attack, which was responsible for three of the six knockdowns against Jovanny Soto. For Rojas to win he needs to weather Lara’s early storm with his tight guard, then try to push him back because Lara, while versatile, is much better when he’s the aggressor.

Our suggestion: Lara is viewed as a bright prospect and he showed in the first round against Soto that he’s capable of racking up huge numbers (44 of 134 overall, 41 of 111 power in round one). Rojas hasn’t fought in more than a year and two of the three comeback opponents following a 21 month layoff had records of 28-23-3 and 36-30-2 and the latter fighter, Jose Angel Beranza, inflicted the lone defeat of Rojas’ career six years earlier. Rojas is attempting an ambitious leap and while he’ll likely fall short he’ll at least make it exciting.

Throwdown Fantasy has six games up and two of them are free rolls with no entry fee so get your picks in todya before the games fill up.